Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 4 | 21 | 52% | +5.0% | medium |
| LeBron James | 3 | 17 | 58% | +7.6% | medium |
| Zion Williamson | 3 | 15 | 77% | +31.9% | medium |
| Julius Randle | 3 | 14 | 36% |
P.J. Washington is trending up overall, with his last 5 games at 18.8 points and 8.6 rebounds versus season marks of 14.4 and 7.0. The matchup context is favorable for production on paper: he has averaged 17.18 points and 6.0 rebounds in 11 games versus this opponent, and the opponent is missing Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, and Quinten Post. Still, his season baseline and recent variance suggest caution on overs beyond the most accessible scoring number, especially with his rebounds sitting below the 7.5 line most books are hanging.
Draymond Green is listed among the key defenders, while Moses Moody is also listed with limited minutes, but there is no specific defender matchup data beyond that. The opponent is also missing Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, and Quinten Post, which can lift Washington’s usage and scoring chances.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P.J. Washington▼ | Points | 14.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 9 | ✗ |
P.J. Washington▼ | Rebounds | 7.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 3 | ✓ |
P.J. Washington▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 74%HIGH | 2/2 | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
P.J. Washington▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
P.J. Washington▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
P.J. Washington▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 3 | ✓ |
P.J. Washington▼ | P+R | 21.5 | OVER | 52%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 12 | ✗ |
This is the cleanest edge in the data: Washington averages 1.8 assists on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, both clearly below 2.5. The value sheet shows the under as the best side with a 3.1% edge and positive EV, making it the most reliable play in his market set.
| medium |
| Deni Avdija | 3 | 12 | 33% | -11.7% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draymond Green | 3 | 7 | 5 | 67% | 83% |
| Kristaps Porziņģis | 1 | 6 | 3 | 50% | 50% |
| Al Horford | 2 | 4 | 3 | 100% | 150% |
| Gary Payton II | 3 | 3 | 2 | 33% | 33% |
| Stephen Curry | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17% | 17% |
He is averaging 14.4 points for the season and 14.6 over the last 10, with a 17.18-point history in 11 games versus this opponent. The current opponent absences support scoring upside, but the edge is modest at 1.8% on DraftKings, so this is not a high-confidence over.
His season rebound average is 7.0 and his last 10 is 6.8, both below 7.5. Even though his last 5 is 8.6, that is a short-window spike and the value data shows the under as the better side on this number.
Washington averages only 1.8 assists for the season and 1.6 over the last 10, well below 2.5. The value data also shows the under as the best side, with a 3.1% edge and positive EV.
He averages 1.35 made threes for the season and 1.9 over the last 5, so the volume is there even though the season baseline is slightly below 1.5. This is a playable lean, but the prop metrics show noticeable variance, so confidence stays moderate.
His season average is 1.1 blocks and he is at 0.6 over the last 10, so 0.5 is a low bar relative to his role. The matchup data does not provide a specific defender matchup data beyond the listed defenders, so this leans on his season shot-blocking profile.
He combines 1.0 steals and 1.1 blocks per game on the season, and his last 5 stocks are 2.2. The variance is real, but his average production clears 1.5 and the recent form supports a slight over lean.
His season points plus rebounds is 21.4, essentially right on the line, and his last 5 scoring/rebounding run is stronger. Combo props are higher-variance, so this is only a small lean despite the recent uptick.