AI Model:

P.J. Washington▲

DAL · C

PPG

14.4

RPG

7.0

APG

1.8

L5 PPG

18.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.4

14.4

18.8

RPG+1.6

7.0

8.6

APG-0.6

1.8

1.2

SPG+0.4

1.0

1.4

BPG-0.3

1.1

0.8

OVER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

14.5

CHA

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CHA: 13 pts

ORL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs ORL: 18 pts

BOS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs BOS: 5 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 9 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 7 pts

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 12 pts

CLE

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs CLE: 20 pts

NOP

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs NOP: 18 pts

ATL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs ATL: 23 pts

LAC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAC: 21 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

AST

UNDER 2.5BETONLINEAG

74%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

BLK

OVER 0.5

61%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

P+R

OVER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.2

13.3

RPG

6.8

6.4

APG

1.2

1.9

vs GSW (H2H)11 games

PPG

17.2

RPG

6.0

APG

1.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kevin Durant	4	21	52%	+5.0%	medium
LeBron James	3	17	58%	+7.6%	medium
Zion Williamson	3	15	77%	+31.9%	medium
Julius Randle	3	14	36%

P.J. Washington’s scoring is steady, but the board line looks a touch high

P.J. Washington is trending up overall, with his last 5 games at 18.8 points and 8.6 rebounds versus season marks of 14.4 and 7.0. The matchup context is favorable for production on paper: he has averaged 17.18 points and 6.0 rebounds in 11 games versus this opponent, and the opponent is missing Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, and Quinten Post. Still, his season baseline and recent variance suggest caution on overs beyond the most accessible scoring number, especially with his rebounds sitting below the 7.5 line most books are hanging.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.8(↑ from 14.4)

RPG

8.6(↑ from 7.0)

APG

1.2(↓ from 1.8)

Stocks

2.2(→ from 2.1)

Key Matchup

Draymond Green is listed among the key defenders, while Moses Moody is also listed with limited minutes, but there is no specific defender matchup data beyond that. The opponent is also missing Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, and Quinten Post, which can lift Washington’s usage and scoring chances.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
P.J. Washington▼	Points	14.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	9	✗
P.J. Washington▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	3	✓
P.J. Washington▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	70%	2	✓
P.J. Washington▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	0	✗
P.J. Washington▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
P.J. Washington▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	30%	3	✓
P.J. Washington▼	P+R	21.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	12	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA22OVER11%gbt_praAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

AST2UNDER71%gbt_assistsAvoid (6/20)UNDER 10x4/2020%▼

P+R21OVER0%gbt_prAvoid (6/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A15.5UNDER0%gbt_paAvoid (6/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

PTS13.5UNDER8%gbt_pointsAvoid (5/20)9/2045%▼

REB5.5UNDER0%gbt_reboundsAvoid (5/20)11/2055%▼

3PA4UNDER14%gbtAvoid (5/20)9/2045%▼

FTM1.5UNDER13%gbtAvoid (5/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (5/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

3PM1.5UNDER4%gbt_three_pmAvoid (4/20)10/2050%▼

FTA2UNDER8%gbtAvoid (4/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

P.J. Washington

Assists UNDER 2.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data: Washington averages 1.8 assists on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, both clearly below 2.5. The value sheet shows the under as the best side with a 3.1% edge and positive EV, making it the most reliable play in his market set.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Draymond Green	3	7	5	67%	83%
Kristaps Porziņģis	1	6	3	50%	50%
Al Horford	2	4	3	100%	150%
Gary Payton II	3	3	2	33%	33%
Stephen Curry	2	3	2	17%	17%

pointsOVER 14.558%MEDIUM

He is averaging 14.4 points for the season and 14.6 over the last 10, with a 17.18-point history in 11 games versus this opponent. The current opponent absences support scoring upside, but the edge is modest at 1.8% on DraftKings, so this is not a high-confidence over.

reboundsUNDER 7.564%MEDIUM

His season rebound average is 7.0 and his last 10 is 6.8, both below 7.5. Even though his last 5 is 8.6, that is a short-window spike and the value data shows the under as the better side on this number.

assistsUNDER 2.574%HIGH

Washington averages only 1.8 assists for the season and 1.6 over the last 10, well below 2.5. The value data also shows the under as the best side, with a 3.1% edge and positive EV.

threesOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.35 made threes for the season and 1.9 over the last 5, so the volume is there even though the season baseline is slightly below 1.5. This is a playable lean, but the prop metrics show noticeable variance, so confidence stays moderate.

blocksOVER 0.561%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.1 blocks and he is at 0.6 over the last 10, so 0.5 is a low bar relative to his role. The matchup data does not provide a specific defender matchup data beyond the listed defenders, so this leans on his season shot-blocking profile.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He combines 1.0 steals and 1.1 blocks per game on the season, and his last 5 stocks are 2.2. The variance is real, but his average production clears 1.5 and the recent form supports a slight over lean.

prOVER 21.552%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds is 21.4, essentially right on the line, and his last 5 scoring/rebounding run is stronger. Combo props are higher-variance, so this is only a small lean despite the recent uptick.

timelineOVER 14.5 PTS