AI Model:

Naji Marshall▼

DAL · PF

PPG

15.1

RPG

4.7

APG

3.1

L5 PPG

21.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+6.1

15.1

21.2

RPG+0.3

4.7

5.0

APG+1.9

3.1

5.0

SPG0.0

1.0

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

16.5

ORL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs ORL: 6 pts

BOS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs BOS: 13 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 8 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 5 pts

CLE

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CLE: 17 pts

CLE

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs CLE: 25 pts

NOP

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs NOP: 32 pts

ATL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs ATL: 4 pts

LAC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAC: 28 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

AST

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

3PM

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

STL

UNDER 1.5BETMGM

62%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

58%

UNDER 2

60%

PRA

UNDER 25.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.6

16.3

RPG

5.4

3.6

APG

3.6

4.1

vs GSW (H2H)14 games

PPG

10.4

RPG

4.9

APG

2.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	3	18	83%	+15.9%	medium
Deni Avdija	3	16	43%	-7.9%	medium
Jamal Murray	4	14	89%	+27.8%	medium
Keyonte George	4	13	80%

Naji Marshall’s expanded role keeps his floor intact, but the scoring number is slightly inflated

Marshall is coming off a volatile stretch, with his last 5 at 21.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 5.0 APG, but his last 10 has cooled to 15.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, and 4.1 APG. His season baseline is 15.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 3.1 assists in 29.5 MPG, and the recent dip in the trend suggests regression from the hot last-5 scoring burst. He also has extra usage available with Brandon Williams doubtful and Dereck Lively II and Kyrie Irving out, but the market has already pushed his points line to 16.5. The home split is supportive at 18.6 PPG and 32.6 MPG, yet the opponent profile and his 14-game history vs this team at 10.4 PPG lean against chasing an inflated scoring number.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.2(↓ from 15.1)

RPG

5.0(→ from 4.7)

APG

5.0(↑ from 3.1)

Key Matchup

Key defender data is limited to Draymond Green and Moses Moody, with no specific defender matchup data beyond their listed minutes and points allowed. The opponent profile shows a 114.53 defensive rating, pace of 100, and a strong three suppression of -0.724, which is more relevant here than any single-defender projection.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Naji Marshall▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	16	✓
Naji Marshall▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	6	✗
Naji Marshall▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	7	✓
Naji Marshall▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✓
Naji Marshall▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	1	✓
Naji Marshall▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	20%	1	✗
Naji Marshall▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	8	✗
Naji Marshall▼	PRA	25.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	29	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS14.5OVER18%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

PRA21.5OVER34%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)11/2055%▼

3PA2.5UNDER34%gbtAvoid (7/20)10/2050%▼

FTA5UNDER12%gbtAvoid (7/20)10/2050%▼

REB3.5OVER5%gbt_reboundsAvoid (6/20)OVER 2x12/2060%▼

P+A20.5UNDER0%gbt_paAvoid (6/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

FTM2.5UNDER22%gbtAvoid (5/20)10/2050%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (5/20)9/2045%▼

P+R20.5UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (5/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

AST3.5UNDER9%gbt_assistsAvoid (4/20)10/2050%▼

STL1UNDER29%gbt_stealsAvoid (4/20)5/2025%▼

Featured Pick

Naji Marshall

Points UNDER 16.5MEDIUM

The best available betting angle is the under because his season mean is 15.1 PPG, his last 10 is 15.2 PPG, and his 14-game history vs this opponent is only 10.428571428571429 PPG. The recent 21.2 PPG last-5 run looks like an overextended spike relative to the season baseline, and the books have already priced him up to 16.5.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Gui Santos	2	7	5	40%	50%
Brandin Podziemski	3	5	7	33%	42%
Moses Moody	3	5	3	50%	75%
Draymond Green	3	4	4	67%	67%
De'Anthony Melton	3	4	3	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 16.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 15.1 PPG, and his vs-opponent mark is only 10.428571428571429 PPG across 14 games. The last 5 spike to 21.2 PPG is well above his baseline, and the recent data shows a downtrend, which makes the 16.5 number a bit rich.

reboundsUNDER 5.567%MEDIUM

He averages 4.7 RPG on the season and 3.8 RPG over the last 10, both below 5.5. The prop metrics also show modest consistency with a 2.52 standard deviation, and his head-to-head rebound average of 4.857142857142857 is still under the line.

assistsOVER 3.557%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 3.13, but the last 10 is 4.1 and the last 5 is 5.0, showing a clear role bump. Teammate absences support more ball-handling, and the 3.5 line is below his recent production.

threesOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.84 threes per game on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, so he clears 0.5 regularly. The line is low enough that even a modest shooting night can get there.

stealsUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 steals on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, which is solid but still below 1.5. This is a high threshold for a stat with limited volume and variance.

stocksOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.13, but the combined defensive production rises to 1.2 away and 1.5 in back-to-backs. With his recent stock rate at 0.9, this is playable only as a modest over based on his overall two-way activity.

turnoversUNDER 260%MEDIUM

His last 10 turnover average is 2.1, but the last 5 is 1.6, showing a cleaner stretch lately. Given the playmaking bump, this stays close to the line, but the current form slightly favors the under.

praUNDER 25.554%MEDIUM

His season baseline projects to 23.93 PRA using 15.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 3.1 assists, which sits below 25.5. The combo format adds variance, and while recent usage is up, the current market number is still a little aggressive.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS