AI Model:

Moses Moody▼

GSW · SF

PPG

11.9

RPG

3.3

APG

1.6

L5 PPG

16.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.7

11.9

16.6

RPG+0.7

3.3

4.0

APG+1.4

1.6

3.0

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG-0.5

0.5

0.0

OVER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

11.5

PHX

2026-02-05

2026-02-05 vs PHX: 6 pts

LAL

2026-02-07

2026-02-07 vs LAL: 25 pts

MEM

2026-02-09

2026-02-09 vs MEM: 15 pts

SAS

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs SAS: 17 pts

BOS

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs BOS: 11 pts

DEN

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs DEN: 23 pts

NOP

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NOP: 24 pts

MEM

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs MEM: 14 pts

LAL

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs LAL: 12 pts

LAC

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs LAC: 10 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 11.5STAKE

64%

REB

OVER 3.5STAKE

58%

AST

OVER 1.5STAKE

60%

3PM

OVER 2.5

62%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

57%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

68%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

55%

UNDER 1.5

63%

P+R

OVER 11.5STAKE

57%

P+A

OVER 12.5STAKE

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.9

17.7

RPG

3.1

5.1

APG

1.8

1.7

vs DAL (H2H)12 games

PPG

8.1

RPG

2.5

APG

0.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Saddiq Bey	3	10	70%	+16.2%	medium
Cooper Flagg	3	10	50%	-2.1%	medium
Dillon Brooks	3	9	35%	-13.8%	medium
De'Aaron Fox	3	8	59%

Moody’s usage is elevated, but the matchup and wrist question keep the floor in check

Moses Moody is coming in with clear role-based upside after averaging 16.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 3.0 APG over his last 5 games while playing 30.4 MPG, all well above his season marks of 11.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG, and 1.6 APG. That said, his season trend is still listed as down, and his head-to-head history vs this opponent is modest at 8.08 PPG and 18.25 MPG across 12 games. The injury status is questionable with a right wrist issue, so minutes and efficiency are not fully secure even with multiple teammate absences boosting opportunity.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.6(↑ from 11.9)

RPG

4.0(↑ from 3.3)

APG

3.0(↑ from 1.6)

Key Matchup

He has no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and his vs-opponent sample is weak at 8.08 PPG, 2.5 RPG, and 0.67 APG across 12 games. The opponent also allows a 118.79 defensive rating and has a negative three-point suppression mark of -1.391, which slightly helps his perimeter scoring profile.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Moses Moody▼	Points	11.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	23	✓
Moses Moody▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✗
Moses Moody▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	3	✓
Moses Moody▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	4	✓
Moses Moody▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✓
Moses Moody▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	80%	2	✗
Moses Moody▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	70%	5	✗
Moses Moody▼	Turnovers	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✗
Moses Moody▼	P+R	11.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	100%	26	✓
Moses Moody▼	P+A	12.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	26	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A17.5UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

R+A5.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

P+R19.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Moses Moody

Blocks UNDER 0.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge on the board because his recent block production is well below the line, at 0.0 over the last 5 and 0.2 over the last 10. His season average is only 0.5, and the wrist concern adds a little extra downside to an already low-frequency stat.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Cooper Flagg	3	10	14	42%	50%
Naji Marshall	3	4	8	43%	43%
Klay Thompson	3	4	3	33%	50%
Max Christie	3	4	13	83%	108%
P.J. Washington	3	4	6	50%	63%

pointsOVER 11.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.95 PPG and his last 5 jumped to 16.6 PPG, so 11.5 is reachable if he maintains his current usage. The risk is the questionable right wrist tag and his poor 12-game history vs this opponent at 8.08 PPG.

reboundsOVER 3.558%MEDIUM

He has averaged 4.0 RPG over the last 5 and 3.8 RPG over the last 20, which is above the 3.5 line. The season average is only 3.34 RPG, so this is a smaller edge and should stay moderate confidence.

assistsOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

His recent assist form is stronger than the season baseline, with 2.5 APG over the last 10 and 3.0 APG over the last 5 versus 1.59 APG for the season. The line is low enough that his expanded role can clear it even without elite distribution.

threesOVER 2.562%MEDIUM

He averages 2.48 made threes for the season and 3.1 over the last 10, with 3.4 FG3MPG over the last 5. The standard level of volume plus his recent shot profile supports a slight lean over this projected line.

stealsOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He is at 0.9 SPG for the season and 1.0 SPG over the last 5, so 0.5 is a low bar. The odds on the over are heavy, but the statistical case for at least one steal is still solid.

blocksUNDER 0.568%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.5 BPG, but the last 5 show 0.0 and the last 10 only 0.2. With limited block frequency and a wrist concern, the under is the more stable side.

stocksUNDER 1.555%MEDIUM

He sits at 1.45 stocks per game for the season and 1.2 over the last 5, which leaves little cushion above a 1.5 projection. Variance is meaningful here, so this is better treated as an under lean.

turnoversUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His turnover rate is modest at 0.9 on the last 20, 1.2 on the last 10, and 1.4 on the last 5. That profile supports staying under a 1.5 projected line.

prOVER 11.557%MEDIUM

He has averaged 15.2 PPG and 3.8 RPG over the last 20, which gives this combo a workable path above 11.5. Combo props carry more variance, so confidence should remain modest.

paOVER 12.556%MEDIUM

His recent scoring plus assist combination is trending up, with 15.7 PPG and 2.5 APG over the last 10. The line is high enough to keep this in the medium-confidence range.

timelineOVER 11.5 PTS