AI Model:

Draymond Green▼

GSW · PF

PPG

8.6

RPG

5.6

APG

5.3

L5 PPG

8.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG0.0

8.6

RPG+0.6

5.6

6.2

APG-0.1

5.3

5.2

SPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

BPG0.0

0.6

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

9.5

LAL

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs LAL: 7 pts

LAC

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs LAC: 4 pts

HOU

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs HOU: 10 pts

OKC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs OKC: 16 pts

UTA

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs UTA: 6 pts

CHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHI: 12 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 5 pts

BOS

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BOS: 13 pts

DET

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DET: 0 pts

ATL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs ATL: 13 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5FANDUEL

82%

AST

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

REB

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

3PM

OVER 1.5BETMGM

53%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

OVER 2.5

59%

P+R

OVER 15.5FANDUEL

52%

P+A

OVER 15.5FANDUEL

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.4

7.5

RPG

5.8

4.8

APG

4.9

5.8

vs DAL (H2H)14 games

PPG

10.0

RPG

6.3

APG

6.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Victor Wembanyama	4	25	53%	+6.4%	medium
Nikola Jokić	3	16	58%	+7.8%	medium
Zion Williamson	2	12	42%	-0.1%	low
Alperen Sengun	2	11	47%

Draymond’s assists remain the cleanest angle, but scoring leans modest

Draymond Green is producing 8.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 5.3 APG on the season, with his last 5 sitting at 8.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 5.2 assists. The recent trend is down overall, and his last 10 shows a stronger assist profile at 6.2 APG versus 5.3 season-long, while scoring has stayed flat at 8.6. This matchup context is helped by Golden State’s teammate absences, which can support his playmaking workload, but the opponent defense and his own scoring volatility still make points less appealing than assists. The cleanest projection is around his passing role, while rebounds and combo props carry more variance.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.6(→ from 8.6)

RPG

6.2(↑ from 5.6)

APG

5.2(→ from 5.3)

Stocks

1.6(↑ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

P.J. Washington, Naji Marshall, and Cooper Flagg are the listed key defenders, but the data does not provide enough to isolate a true shutdown matchup. Dallas has a 118.79 defensive rating and no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed names and their allowed points/field goal rates.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Draymond Green▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	2/2	50%	11	✗
Draymond Green▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	6	✓
Draymond Green▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	7	✓
Draymond Green▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	0	✗
Draymond Green▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✗
Draymond Green▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	—	50%	6	✓
Draymond Green▼	P+R	15.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	18	✓
Draymond Green▼	P+A	15.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	17	✓

ML Scout Analysis

3PA5UNDER27%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)7/2035%▼

PTS9.5OVER8%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

REB5.5UNDER12%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x9/2045%+8.7% edge▼

FTA0.5UNDER1%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

PRA22.5OVER3%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

R+A12UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

P+A15.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x13/2065%▼

P+R14.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

AST6.5OVER20%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

3PM1.5OVER0%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Draymond Green

Points UNDER 9.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value from the provided data: his season scoring average is 8.6, the FanDuel value model shows a 13.1% edge on the UNDER, and the under carries positive EV of 24.65 per 100. Draymond’s recent scoring is volatile, but the season baseline and value signal both point to fewer than 10 points more often than not.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
P.J. Washington	3	6	10	71%	71%
Cooper Flagg	3	6	6	38%	38%
Daniel Gafford	1	5	6	100%	100%
Dwight Powell	1	5	5	100%	100%
Naji Marshall	3	3	6	40%	40%

pointsUNDER 9.582%HIGH

His season mean is 8.6 points and the value data shows the UNDER at 9.5 with a 13.1% edge on FanDuel. Even with some recent 13- and 16-point games, his scoring is volatile and the season baseline still sits below this line.

assistsOVER 5.561%MEDIUM

His season mean is 5.3 APG, last 10 is 6.2 APG, and away mean is 5.8 APG, all supporting a modest over case. With Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler III out, his creation load can stay elevated, though the edge is small and confidence should remain moderate.

reboundsOVER 5.555%MEDIUM

He averages 5.6 rebounds on the season and 5.8 at home, with 6.2 over the last 5. The number is right on top of his baseline, so this is playable but not strong.

threesOVER 1.553%MEDIUM

He averages 1.56 made threes per game and 1.8 over the last 5, so the volume is there. The recent boost in attempts helps, but this remains a low-confidence over because his three-point output is still variable.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season stocks mean is 1.39 and last 20 is 1.1, which sits below a 1.5-style threshold. The recent 1.6 over the last 5 is a small spike, but the longer sample argues against relying on the over.

turnoversOVER 2.559%MEDIUM

He is at 2.3 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.5 over the last 10, with 2.8 over the last 5. With extra ball-handling responsibility, turnovers remain a live over angle.

prOVER 15.552%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 14.2 on the raw season averages, while the sportsbook line sits at 15.5. This is close enough to the median range to be playable, but the variance makes it only a thin lean.

paOVER 15.558%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists average is 13.9, but the combination of 5.3 APG seasonally and 6.2 APG over the last 10 keeps this in play. The line is not cheap, so confidence stays moderate rather than strong.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS