AI Model:

De'Anthony Melton▼

GSW · SG

PPG

13.1

RPG

3.0

APG

2.4

L5 PPG

15.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.5

13.1

15.6

RPG-0.2

3.0

2.8

APG+0.2

2.4

2.6

SPG-0.5

1.5

1.0

BPG0.0

0.4

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

15.5

NOP

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NOP: 28 pts

LAL

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs LAL: 10 pts

LAC

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs LAC: 7 pts

HOU

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs HOU: 23 pts

UTA

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs UTA: 22 pts

MIN

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MIN: 12 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 27 pts

BOS

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BOS: 5 pts

DET

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DET: 14 pts

ATL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs ATL: 20 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5FANDUEL

82%

REB

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

68%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

58%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

63%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

79%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

55%

OVER 2

61%

P+A

UNDER 18.5FANDUEL

72%

P+R

UNDER 16

70%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.6

16.8

RPG

3.4

3.3

APG

3.3

2.3

vs DAL (H2H)10 games

PPG

10.7

RPG

4.0

APG

2.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Keyonte George	3	8	33%	-6.6%	medium
Jamal Murray	2	7	71%	+17.2%	low
Brandon Williams	2	7	43%	+3.0%	low
Collin Gillespie	3	6	0%

Melton’s expanded role is real, but the points market is still pricing in too much

De'Anthony Melton is trending above his season scoring baseline, with his last 5 at 15.6 PPG and last 10 at 16.8 PPG versus a 13.1 season mark, while minutes have climbed to 24.4 and 25.1 in those windows. The biggest boost comes from teammate absences, as Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, and Quinten Post are all out, which supports a larger usage/minutes floor even if his game-to-game scoring remains volatile. Dallas has allowed a 10.7 PPG average to him across 10 meetings, and the opponent defense data points to a tougher scoring environment with a 118.79 defensive rating and 0.783 scoring suppression. Overall, the role is better, but the current points line is still sitting above what the season and head-to-head profile justify.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.6(↑ from 13.1)

RPG

2.8(→ from 3.0)

APG

2.6(↑ from 2.4)

SPG

1.0(↓ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

Key defender matchup data is limited here, with no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed rotation notes. The opponent context is still meaningful: Dallas has a 118.79 defensive rating, a 100 pace, and a 0.783 scoring suppression mark, which points to a less efficient scoring environment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
De'Anthony Melton▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	1/2	50%	0	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	6	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	5	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	0	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	3	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	79%HIGH	—	50%	0	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	40%	3	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	30%	7	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	P+A	18.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	50%	5	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	P+R	16	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	40%	6	✓

ML Scout Analysis

AST2.5OVER36%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 6x11/2055%No material changes▼

PRA19.5UNDER2%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%No material changes▼

PTS12.5UNDER4%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

P+R17OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

P+A16UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

REB3.5OVER3%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

3PM1.5OVER4%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

De'Anthony Melton

Points UNDER 15.5HIGH

This is the strongest angle because the market is asking for more than his 13.1 season average and far more than his 10.7 average in 10 games vs this opponent. Even though teammate absences should lift usage, the current line is still inflated relative to his baseline and the available value data also points to the under.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Brandon Williams	2	7	6	43%	43%
Naji Marshall	3	5	7	75%	88%
Klay Thompson	3	4	5	67%	83%
Cooper Flagg	3	3	7	75%	75%
P.J. Washington	3	2	4	67%	67%

pointsUNDER 15.582%HIGH

His season mean is 13.1 PPG and he has only 10.7 PPG in 10 games vs this opponent. Even with the expanded role from teammate absences, the market line of 15.5 sits above his season baseline and recent production has already shown regression risk.

reboundsUNDER 3.568%MEDIUM

He averages 3.0 rebounds on the season and 3.6 over the last 5, so the line is slightly above his normal range. The recent bump is not large enough to override the season mean, especially with moderate variance.

assistsUNDER 2.564%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 2.4 and his last 5 is 2.6, which is close to the line rather than clearly above it. The role increase helps, but this is still a low-margin prop with high standard deviation.

threesOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.54 threes per game on the season and 1.8 over the last 5, so the line is just below his typical output. This is the cleanest positive-volume category in his profile, though the edge is not strong.

stealsUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.5 steals on the season, but the last 5 has dropped to 1.0 and the away/home split is noisy. With a line set at a full 1.5, the under is slightly safer given the recent dip.

blocksUNDER 0.579%HIGH

His season average is only 0.4 blocks, so this line requires an above-normal defensive outing. The prop is naturally volatile, but the season mean supports the under.

stocksOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

He averages 1.92 stocks on the season and 1.8 in the last 10, both above the 1.5 threshold. This is a viable volume-based over, but standard deviation keeps confidence modest.

turnoversOVER 261%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rates are 2.0 in the last 5 and 1.9 in the last 10, with a season rate of 2.0. The elevated usage from absences makes this a reasonable over look.

paUNDER 18.572%HIGH

His season points-plus-assists profile is 15.5 using the provided season means, while the sportsbook line is 18.5. That gap is meaningful even after accounting for a larger offensive role.

prUNDER 1670%HIGH

Using his season means, points plus rebounds projects around 16.1, and the recent scoring surge has not been enough to create a stable over edge. The under is the more conservative side given his scoring volatility.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS