AI Model:

Cooper Flagg▼

DAL · SF

PPG

20.1

RPG

6.6

APG

4.6

L5 PPG

21.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.5

20.1

21.6

RPG0.0

6.6

APG+2.6

4.6

7.2

SPG-0.3

1.1

0.8

BPG+0.8

1.0

1.8

UNDER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

21.5

ORL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs ORL: 18 pts

BOS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs BOS: 16 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 17 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 13 pts

CLE

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CLE: 25 pts

CLE

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs CLE: 27 pts

NOP

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs NOP: 21 pts

ATL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs ATL: 17 pts

LAC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAC: 18 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

REB

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

AST

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

BLK

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

56%

PRA

UNDER 34.5FANDUEL

55%

P+A

UNDER 27.5FANDUEL

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

25.1

19.9

RPG

6.4

7.3

APG

4.8

5.6

vs GSW (H2H)1 games

PPG

27.0

RPG

6.0

APG

5.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Herbert Jones	4	20	65%	+11.4%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	17	47%	-7.4%	medium
Tari Eason	3	14	46%	-14.1%	medium
Peyton Watson	4	12	75%

Flagg’s all-around floor is strong, but the market is leaning conservative

Cooper Flagg is producing 20.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists on the season, with his home scoring bump to 25.1 PPG standing out. His recent form is mixed: points are down to 18.6 over the last 10, but assists have jumped to 6.6 and he’s been generating 2.5 stocks in that span. The matchup context is workable with no specific defender matchup data, and Dallas has notable teammate absences that can support his usage, but the current prop market is still pricing his points and combos above his season baselines. Given the over-bias warning and his recent points trend, the safer angle is to lean under on inflated scoring and combo lines while respecting his strong defensive production.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.6(↑ from 20.1)

RPG

6.6(→ from 6.6)

APG

7.2(↑ from 4.6)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. The opponent context is mixed: team defense shows a 114.53 defensive rating and a pace of 100, while the opponent is also missing Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler III, which changes the overall game environment without giving a clear individual defender edge.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Cooper Flagg▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	32	✗
Cooper Flagg▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	4	✓
Cooper Flagg▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	9	✗
Cooper Flagg▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	0	✓
Cooper Flagg▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✗
Cooper Flagg▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✓
Cooper Flagg▼	PRA	34.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	45	✗
Cooper Flagg▼	P+A	27.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	41	✗

ML Scout Analysis

R+A12OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)11/2055%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

PTS27.5UNDER22%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x4/2020%+28.1% edgeLine moved +1.0; Value edge shifted +0.118; Scorecard changed +4.0▼

BLK0.5OVER17%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x13/2065%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved HIGH to LOW; Line nudged -0.5▼

PRA42.5UNDER14%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x4/2020%+22.6% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Line moved +2.0; Value edge changed +0.075▼

AST5.5UNDER18%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

STL1.5UNDER32%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x10/2050%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+A29UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x7/2035%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

REB6.5UNDER20%logisticAvoid (7/20)8/2040%+10.3% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

3PM1.5UNDER24%logisticAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x5/2025%+13.3% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R30UNDER0%logisticAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x7/2035%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

Featured Pick

Cooper Flagg

Rebounds UNDER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest data-driven angle because his season average is 6.6, his last-20 average is 6.9, and the value data shows UNDER 7.5 with a 5.1% edge on DraftKings. The line is simply ahead of his central tendency, and rebounds are less likely to get the kind of scoring-style upside that can swing other props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Moses Moody	3	12	15	43%	54%
Brandin Podziemski	3	5	5	67%	67%
Gary Payton II	3	4	6	100%	100%
Gui Santos	2	4	2	0%	0%
Quinten Post	2	4	4	40%	40%

pointsUNDER 21.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 20.1 points and the value data at 21.5 shows UNDER as the best side across multiple books. The last-10 scoring average is only 18.6, so this line is still a bit rich despite the 25.1 home split.

reboundsUNDER 7.569%MEDIUM

He averages 6.6 rebounds on the season and 6.9 over the last 20, both below 7.5. Value data also flags UNDER at 7.5 as +EV with a 5.1% edge on DraftKings.

assistsUNDER 5.557%MEDIUM

Season assists are 4.6, which is below the 5.5 line, and the season mean is much lower than the last-5 spike to 7.2. That recent surge raises some over interest, but the season baseline and the over-bias caution still favor the under.

blocksUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 1.0 block per game on the season, which is below 1.5. Recent block volume is strong, but 1.5 is still a demanding number for a single game.

stealsUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 steals on the season, and his last-10 mark is 0.8. With the line at 1.5, the under remains the cleaner play.

stocksUNDER 2.556%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.09, while the recent mean is 2.5. Because stocks are volatile and this line is effectively around his recent ceiling, the under is slightly safer than forcing an over.

praUNDER 34.555%MEDIUM

His season PRA using the provided means is 31.3, well below 34.5, and combo props have added variance. The market line sits above his baseline, so the under is preferred.

paUNDER 27.554%MEDIUM

Points plus assists season average is 24.7, below 27.5. His recent assist uptick helps, but the combined line still asks for more than his normal output.

timelineUNDER 21.5 PTS