AI Model:

Brandin Podziemski▼

GSW · PG

PPG

12.9

RPG

5.2

APG

3.6

L5 PPG

13.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.1

12.9

13.0

RPG-1.0

5.2

4.2

APG0.0

3.6

SPG-0.1

1.1

1.0

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

HOU

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs HOU: 26 pts

OKC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs OKC: 17 pts

UTA

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs UTA: 14 pts

CHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHI: 9 pts

MIN

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MIN: 25 pts

NYK

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs NYK: 25 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 10 pts

BOS

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BOS: 10 pts

DET

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DET: 15 pts

ATL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs ATL: 5 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

AST

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

67%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

54%

PRA

UNDER 25.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.8

14.2

RPG

7.1

6.3

APG

5.0

3.6

vs DAL (H2H)9 games

PPG

9.7

RPG

5.9

APG

3.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Christian Braun	4	12	67%	+21.1%	medium
Kris Dunn	3	10	81%	+16.9%	medium
Austin Reaves	3	10	43%	-2.7%	medium
Jaylen Wells	3	9	17%

Podziemski’s role is elevated, but the scoring projection still looks fragile

Brandin Podziemski is starting and the absences around him create more opportunity, especially with Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler III both out. His season baseline is 12.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG, and 3.6 APG, while the recent minutes bump to 32.4 in his last 10 has helped keep his production afloat. Still, his trend is marked down, and the matchup data shows just 9.67 PPG in 9 games vs this opponent, which is a meaningful drag on the scoring outlook. With higher usage but a difficult head-to-head profile, the strongest angle leans to his lower point line rather than the inflated combo markets.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.0(→ from 12.9)

RPG

4.2(↓ from 5.2)

APG

3.6(→ from 3.6)

Key Matchup

The opponent data shows a 118.79 defensive rating and no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders. Podziemski also has a 9-game history vs this opponent with just 9.67 PPG, 5.89 RPG, and 3.78 APG, which is a notable historical cap on his scoring ceiling.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Brandin Podziemski▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	50%	20	✗
Brandin Podziemski▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	6	✗
Brandin Podziemski▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	10	✗
Brandin Podziemski▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	2	✓
Brandin Podziemski▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	1	✓
Brandin Podziemski▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✓
Brandin Podziemski▼	PRA	25.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	36	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA25.5OVER44%gbt_praDecent Leg (15/20)12/2060%+8.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

PTS15.5OVER20%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x12/2060%+7.6% edge▼

REB5.5OVER18%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%+13.3% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.339; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+A22OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%▼

AST4.5OVER12%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.168▼

R+A10.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

P+R23.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

STL1UNDER32%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (11/20)7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA6UNDER19%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM2.5UNDER19%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTA4UNDER12%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

3PM2.5OVER5%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed +0.064▼

Featured Pick

Brandin Podziemski

Points UNDER 14.5HIGH

This is the clearest value on the board, with the provided value_props showing a 21.1% edge and 0.72 probability for the under at DraftKings. His season average is 12.9 PPG, his vs-opponent scoring is only 9.67 PPG, and the elevated line does not fully reflect that history.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Max Christie	3	8	2	33%	33%
Naji Marshall	3	7	12	71%	71%
Klay Thompson	3	6	0	0%	0%
Brandon Williams	2	4	8	100%	100%
Cooper Flagg	3	3	17	89%	94%

pointsUNDER 14.574%HIGH

The value data shows a 21.1% best edge on the UNDER at DraftKings, with our_prob_under at 0.72. His season scoring is 12.9 PPG and his vs-opponent mark is only 9.67 PPG across 9 games, so 14.5 is a sizable ask.

assistsUNDER 4.568%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 3.6 and the recent mean is 3.8, both below 4.5. The increased minutes help, but the under still fits the data better than paying juice for an over.

reboundsUNDER 5.563%MEDIUM

He averages 5.2 rebounds for the season and 5.6 in the last 10, which sits right around the line. With the prop already priced at a demanding 5.5, the under is the more conservative side.

threesOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

He averages 1.79 made threes per game on the season and 2.3 in the last 10, both above 1.5. Confidence stays moderate because the book price is heavily juiced and the edge data is not positive.

stealsUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 1.1 and last-5 is 1.0, both below 1.5. The line is elevated for his typical output, so the under is the cleaner side.

stocksOVER 1.554%MEDIUM

He averages 1.27 stocks for the season and 1.3 in the last 10, which is close to a 1.5 threshold. This is a low-confidence lean only because the combined variance is meaningful.

praUNDER 25.560%MEDIUM

His season PRA using the provided averages is 21.7, well below 25.5. Combo props carry extra variance, and the season profile does not support a strong over case here.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS