AI Model:

Royce O'Neale▼

PHX · PF

PPG

9.9

RPG

4.8

APG

2.8

L5 PPG

11.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.5

9.9

11.4

RPG-1.2

4.8

3.6

APG0.0

2.8

SPG+0.1

1.1

1.2

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

UNDER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

8.5

LAL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs LAL: 13 pts

SAC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAC: 6 pts

CHI

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs CHI: 3 pts

NOP

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NOP: 11 pts

CHA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHA: 3 pts

MIL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIL: 21 pts

IND

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs IND: 15 pts

TOR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs TOR: 6 pts

BOS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BOS: 6 pts

MIN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIN: 9 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

STL

UNDER 1.5

70%

BLK

OVER 0.5

55%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

OVER 1

54%

P+R

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

P+A

UNDER 13.5STAKE

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.4

10.2

RPG

5.1

4.5

APG

2.2

2.5

vs TOR (H2H)12 games

PPG

9.7

RPG

6.7

APG

3.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
John Collins	4	15	42%	-0.3%	medium
DeMar DeRozan	4	15	73%	+30.7%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	3	13	22%	-19.8%	medium
LeBron James	4	12	32%

Royce O'Neale’s 3-point volume stands out, but scoring and combo props look capped

Royce O'Neale is producing 9.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 2.8 APG for the season, with his recent form showing 11.4 PPG over the last 5 but only 9.3 PPG over the last 10 and 9.2 over the last 20. That split suggests the hot stretch is not fully stable, especially with his minutes sitting around 27-29 MPG and Phoenix on a back-to-back, which can tighten starter workloads. The best statistical angle remains his 3-point volume at 2.75 made threes per game on the season and 2.9 over the last 5, but the current 2.5 line is aggressive and carries some regression risk. Overall, his profile fits more of a modest volume role than a true upside scoring spot.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.4(↑ from 9.9)

RPG

3.6(↓ from 4.8)

APG

2.8(→ from 2.8)

3PM

2.9(↑ from 2.8)

Stocks

1.8(↑ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

Toronto’s defense has a 111.97 rating and a pace of 100, with opponent scoring suppression at -0.765 and three-point suppression at -0.721. O'Neale has averaged 9.666666666666666 PPG, 6.666666666666667 RPG, and 3.3333333333333335 APG across 12 games vs this opponent, but there is no specific defender matchup data to target beyond the listed defenders.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Royce O'Neale▼	Points	8.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Royce O'Neale▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Royce O'Neale▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
Royce O'Neale▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Royce O'Neale▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	60%
Royce O'Neale▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	40%
Royce O'Neale▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%
Royce O'Neale▼	Turnovers	1	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	30%
Royce O'Neale▼	P+R	12.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Royce O'Neale▼	P+A	13.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%

ML Scout Analysis

3PM1.5UNDER19%gbt_three_pmDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x15/2075%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.375; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

PTS6.5UNDER6%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

REB3.5OVER35%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%+15.0% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted +0.369▼

PRA14.5UNDER22%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R13UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

P+A10.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

AST2UNDER27%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

3PA6UNDER30%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

R+A7OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Royce O'Neale

Threes OVER 2.5MEDIUM

This is the strongest prop because his season mean is 2.75 made threes and he’s at 2.9 over the last 5, with multiple books pricing the 2.5 over positively. The risk is regression, since his last-5 is only modestly above season norm and Phoenix is on a back-to-back, but the volume still supports the over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Brandon Ingram	1	3	16	78%	89%
Ja'Kobe Walter	1	2	0	0%	0%
Scottie Barnes	1	2	0	0%	0%
Immanuel Quickley	1	1	2	33%	33%
RJ Barrett	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 8.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 9.93, but his last-10 is 9.3 and last-20 is 9.2, which is a weaker base than the last-5 spike. The 8.5 line is close, but with Phoenix on a back-to-back and his recent trend marked down, the under is slightly safer.

reboundsUNDER 4.556%MEDIUM

Royce is at 4.84 RPG on the season and 4.5 over the last 10, so this is a near coin flip. The under gets a small lean because his last-5 rebounds are only 3.6 and his home mean is 5.1 but tonight’s situation includes a back-to-back.

assistsUNDER 3.567%MEDIUM

He averages just 2.78 APG on the season and 2.6 over the last 10, well below the 3.5 line. Even with a 3.21 away mean, the season baseline points to the under.

threesOVER 2.561%MEDIUM

This is the strongest volume-based angle: 2.75 made threes per game on the season, 2.9 over the last 5, and 2.75 at home/away overall. The line is reachable, but confidence stays moderate because the recent surge is only slightly above his season level.

stealsUNDER 1.570%HIGH

He averages 1.1 steals on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, which is below 1.5. His stocks are useful, but the steals number is too high for his typical output.

blocksOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

Royce averages 0.4 blocks on the season and 0.6 over the last 10, so this is a low-volume but live over. The recent uptick in rim events gives it a modest edge, though variance is high.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.52 and he is at 1.7 over the last 10, so this sits right on his core range. The variance is high, but the baseline supports a slight over lean.

turnoversOVER 154%MEDIUM

He has 1.0 turnovers over the last 5 and 1.1 over the last 20, with season turnover data also showing consistent ball-handling involvement. This is a low-confidence over because his usage is modest and turnover totals can swing game to game.

prUNDER 12.563%MEDIUM

His season averages project to 14.73 PRA, but the combo line is inflated relative to his scoring and rebound profile, and combo props are generally higher variance. The last-10 scoring dip and back-to-back context make the under the more conservative side.

paUNDER 13.566%MEDIUM

He averages 12.68 P+A on the season and 11.9 over the last 10, which is below this line. The recent trend and modest assist ceiling make the under the cleaner play.

timelineUNDER 8.5 PTS