AI Model:

Oso Ighodaro▲

PHX · C

PPG

6.3

RPG

4.9

APG

2.2

L5 PPG

10.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.1

6.3

10.4

RPG+1.5

4.9

6.4

APG+2.2

2.2

4.4

SPG+0.4

1.0

1.4

BPG-0.6

0.6

0.0

OVER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

8.5

CHI

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs CHI: 10 pts

NOP

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NOP: 13 pts

CHA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHA: 2 pts

MIL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIL: 8 pts

IND

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs IND: 6 pts

TOR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs TOR: 5 pts

BOS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BOS: 4 pts

MIN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIN: 16 pts

SAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAS: 15 pts

MIL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MIL: 12 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 8.5FANDUEL

54%

REB

UNDER 6.5FANDUEL

68%

AST

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

64%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

57%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

56%

P+A

UNDER 11.5FANDUEL

60%

P+R

UNDER 15.5FANDUEL

62%

R+A

UNDER 10.5FANDUEL

73%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.6

9.8

RPG

5.6

6.5

APG

2.8

4.1

vs TOR (H2H)3 games

PPG

4.7

RPG

5.3

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nikola Jokić	3	15	75%	+4.6%	medium
Jaxson Hayes	4	13	0%	-65.4%	medium
Rudy Gobert	3	10	80%	+14.6%	medium
Deandre Ayton	4	10	100%

Ighodaro’s minutes are up, but the rebound and assist lines still look inflated

Oso Ighodaro’s form has trended up with his last 5 averaging 10.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.4 assists, well above his season marks of 6.3, 4.9, and 2.2. The biggest driver is playing time: his minutes have jumped to 31.4 over the last 5 and 29.4 over the last 10 versus 21.7 for the season. Even with that usage bump, his matchup history vs Toronto is modest at 4.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.3 assists across 3 games, so the market may still be too aggressive on combo volume. With the Suns on a back-to-back, there is some risk of reduced efficiency or late-game minutes management.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.4(↑ from 6.3)

RPG

6.4(↑ from 4.9)

APG

4.4(↑ from 2.2)

Key Matchup

Toronto’s opponent profile does not give a clear defender edge here, and there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders. The matchup history is muted as well, with Ighodaro averaging 4.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.3 assists in 3 games against Toronto.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Oso Ighodaro▼	Points	8.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	6	✗
Oso Ighodaro▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	7	✗
Oso Ighodaro▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	1	✓
Oso Ighodaro▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	3	✓
Oso Ighodaro▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	4	✗
Oso Ighodaro▼	P+A	11.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	7	✓
Oso Ighodaro▼	P+R	15.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	13	✓
Oso Ighodaro▼	R+A	10.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	2/2	60%	8	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA18UNDER3%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R15.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

P+A12.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

PTS8OVER3%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTA2UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x5/2025%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A10UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

REB6UNDER30%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST3UNDER23%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Oso Ighodaro

Rebounds UNDER 6.5HIGH

This is the strongest value on the board because the model has him at 4.9 rebounds for the season and the value data shows a 14.1% edge on the under at FanDuel. Even with the recent minutes spike, his last 10 rebound average is only 6.0, and the line still sits above that number.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jakob Poeltl	2	6	2	33%	33%
Scottie Barnes	2	3	6	50%	50%
Sandro Mamukelashvili	2	3	3	25%	38%
RJ Barrett	2	2	2	50%	50%
Jonathan Mogbo	1	1	2	100%	100%

pointsOVER 8.554%MEDIUM

His recent scoring is 10.4 PPG over the last 5 and 9.1 over the last 10, both above the 8.5 line. The season mean is only 6.3, so this is more of a role-based lean than a strong historical one.

reboundsUNDER 6.568%MEDIUM

This is the clearest edge: his season mean is 4.9 rebounds and even his last 10 is only 6.0, below 6.5. The value data also flags UNDER 6.5 as +EV with a 14.1% edge on FanDuel.

assistsUNDER 3.564%MEDIUM

He’s at 2.2 APG for the season and 3.8 over the last 10, but that recent spike comes with a 1.73 season standard deviation and 2.36 recent standard deviation. The combination of volatility and a line above his season mean makes the under the safer side.

blocksOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 blocks per game on the season and 0.6 over the last 10, which is enough to justify a slight over lean. The sample is volatile, but the line is aligned with his typical production.

stocksUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.56, but the last 10 is 1.5 and the last 20 is 1.6, so this is basically a coin flip with high variance. Given the standard deviation of 1.42, confidence should stay modest and the under is slightly safer.

paUNDER 11.560%MEDIUM

Points plus assists has climbed recently, but the season blend still points below this threshold: 6.3 points and 2.2 assists. Because combo props have lower historical hit rates and this line sits above his combined season average, the under is the conservative play.

prUNDER 15.562%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds average is 11.2, and even with the recent role boost he is not consistently near 15.5. The last 5 surge is real, but combo variance makes the under preferable unless minutes stay firmly elevated.

raUNDER 10.573%HIGH

Rebounds plus assists season average is 7.1, and his last 10 is 9.8, still below 10.5. The value sheet supports the under on both FanDuel and DraftKings with strong positive edge and EV.

timelineOVER 8.5 PTS