Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jericho Sims | 1 | 5 | 0% | -53.7% | low |
| Jaylin Williams | 2 | 5 | 50% | -3.7% | low |
| Nikola Jokić | 3 | 4 | 60% | +6.3% | medium |
| Yves Missi | 1 | 4 | 50% |
Khaman Maluach’s recent role is trending up, with his minutes rising from a 7.6 season average to 13.9 over the last 10 games and 11.6 over the last 5. That has lifted his recent production to 3.4 PPG and 3.3 RPG, but the season baseline is still very low at 2.3 points and 2.1 rebounds, so his floor remains limited. This matchup adds some room for defensive counting stats: Toronto’s opponent defense profile is not especially restrictive, and the game environment could keep him in the rotation. Still, the combination of low usage, low assist volume, and strong regression risk makes overs hard to trust.
Key defender matchup data is limited, so there is no specific defender matchup data. Toronto’s opponent defense shows a 111.97 defensive rating and a pace of 100, which does not point to a major slowdown for his limited role.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Khaman Maluach▼ | Points | 2.5 | UNDER | 74%HIGH | 2/2 | 50% | 7 | ✗ |
Khaman Maluach▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 7 | ✓ |
Khaman Maluach▼ | Assists | 0.5 | UNDER | 83%HIGH | — | 70% | 0 | ✓ |
Khaman Maluach▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 0 | ✗ |
Khaman Maluach▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | — | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest angle because his season average is only 0.17 assists and his recent average is 0.3, both far below even a tiny 0.5 line. He has no meaningful passing role, so the under is the most stable play on the card.
| low |
| Myles Turner | 2 | 4 | 58% | -3.7% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Jakob Poeltl | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Jonathan Mogbo | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Brandon Ingram | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Scottie Barnes | 2 | 1 | 8 | 100% | 100% |
His season mean is 2.3 points and the last 20 is 2.9, so a 2.5 line sits close to the middle but still leans under given his low usage and the fact his recent spike is mostly minutes-driven. He has gone for 2 points or fewer in 6 of his last 10 games.
Rebounds are the clearest path to production: his season mean is 2.1, but the last 10 is 3.3 and the last 5 is 2.6 with minutes up to 13.9. The volatility is still high, so this is only a modest lean.
He averages just 0.17 assists for the season and 0.3 over the last 10, with only one assist in his last 5 games. His playmaking volume is too small to trust an over.
He averages 0.5 blocks per game on the season and 0.6 over the last 20, so a half-block line is reachable. The recent block rate has dipped to 0.4 over the last 5, which keeps confidence moderate.
His season average for stocks is only 0.61 and even the last 10 sits at 1.0. With a 1.5 line, he would need an outlier defensive game to clear it.