Jamal Shead▼

TOR · SG

PPG

6.6

RPG

1.9

APG

5.1

L5 PPG

4.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.0

6.6

4.6

RPG-0.3

1.9

1.6

APG-0.3

5.1

4.8

SPG-0.7

0.9

0.2

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

10.5

WAS

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs WAS: 7 pts

NYK

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NYK: 4 pts

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 2 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 0 pts

HOU

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs HOU: 2 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 9 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 6 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 4 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 0 pts

DEN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DEN: 4 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5STAKE

79%

AST

UNDER 6.5STAKE

73%

REB

UNDER 2.5STAKE

84%

3PM

UNDER 1.5

76%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

81%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

74%

P+A

UNDER 17.5STAKE

70%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.5

4.9

RPG

1.7

2.2

APG

4.4

3.8

vs PHX (H2H)3 games

PPG

5.0

RPG

1.3

APG

4.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Tyrese Maxey	4	24	75%	+24.5%	medium
Jalen Brunson	4	14	53%	+10.1%	medium
Donovan Mitchell	2	11	69%	+17.2%	low
Payton Pritchard	3	10	20%

Assist volume keeps Jamal Shead relevant, but scoring is tough to trust

Jamal Shead’s season line of 6.6 PPG and 5.1 APG shows a pass-first rotation guard with modest scoring, and his recent form is softer at 4.6 PPG and 4.8 APG over the last 5. The matchup is not especially inviting for points, as Phoenix has a 111.17 defensive rating and the opponent profile shows scoring suppression of -0.948 with three-point suppression of -1.55. His head-to-head sample versus Phoenix is small but steady at 5.0 PPG and 4.67 APG across 3 games, which fits a low-ceiling, assist-driven projection. With A.J. Lawson out, there is a small usage/minutes bump available, but the recent trend still points more to under-friendly outcomes than a breakout.

Stat Trends

PPG

4.6(↓ from 6.6)

APG

4.8(↓ from 5.1)

RPG

1.6(↓ from 1.9)

3PM

0.6(↓ from 1.0)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data. Phoenix’s team defense data is more relevant here, and the opponent profile shows a 111.17 defensive rating with scoring suppression of -0.948 and three-point suppression of -1.55.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jamal Shead▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	79%HIGH	2/2	100%	2	✓
Jamal Shead▼	Assists	6.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	2/2	90%	6	✓
Jamal Shead▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	1/2	80%	1	✓
Jamal Shead▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	76%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Jamal Shead▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	81%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Jamal Shead▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	90%	1	✓
Jamal Shead▼	P+A	17.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	100%	8	✓

ML Scout Analysis

3PA2.5UNDER14%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

PRA11.5OVER47%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 5x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

P+R7OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

PTS6OVER3%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

REB1UNDER6%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

FTA1.5OVER24%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 5x10/2050%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%▼

P+A11.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 5x10/2050%▼

AST5OVER9%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

FTM1UNDER13%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Jamal Shead

Rebounds UNDER 2.5HIGH

This is the cleanest under on the board because his season average is only 1.9 rebounds and his last-5 is 1.6. Even with A.J. Lawson out, his role increase is more likely to show up in ball-handling than on the glass, so 2.5 remains too high.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Devin Booker	2	5	3	50%	75%
Grayson Allen	1	3	4	50%	50%
Collin Gillespie	2	2	0	0%	0%
Jalen Green	2	2	2	33%	33%
Jordan Goodwin	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 10.579%HIGH

He is averaging 6.6 points on the season and only 4.6 over the last 5, well below 10.5. With recent outputs of 4, 0, 4, 6, and 9 points, the under profile is strong.

assistsUNDER 6.573%HIGH

His season mean is 5.1 assists and last-5 is 4.8, so 6.5 is above both baselines. The recent game logs also show only one game above 6 assists in the last 10.

reboundsUNDER 2.584%HIGH

He averages just 1.9 rebounds on the season and 1.6 over the last 5, making 2.5 a clear ask. His last 10 also sits at 1.8 rebounds per game.

threesUNDER 1.576%HIGH

He averages 1.03 made threes per game, but only 0.6 over the last 5 and 0.4 over the last 10. The recent trend points below a 1.5 threshold.

stealsUNDER 1.581%HIGH

His season steals rate is 0.9, while the last 5 has dropped to 0.2. A 1.5 line is well above his typical production.

stocksUNDER 1.574%HIGH

He averages 1.07 stocks for the season but only 0.4 over the last 5. With recent defensive production fading, the under is the safer side.

paUNDER 17.570%HIGH

His season P+A is 11.7 using 6.6 points and 5.1 assists, far below 17.5. Recent form is also down, so the combo line is too high.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS