Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Immanuel Quickley | 2 | 8 | 29% | -13.9% | low |
| Brandon Miller | 2 | 7 | 20% | -22.5% | low |
| Ousmane Dieng | 2 | 6 | 33% | -9.2% | low |
| Sam Hauser | 2 | 6 | 0% |
Green’s recent scoring has been strong at 21.0 PPG over the last 5 and 22.7 over the last 10, but his season mark is still 17.5 PPG and his home scoring is just 15.2 PPG. He’s also seeing far more run lately, with 33.0 MPG over the last 5 versus 26.0 MPG for the season, which supports his counting stats but not necessarily a huge scoring explosion. The matchup adds some resistance: Toronto’s defense profile shows a 111.97 rating with negative scoring suppression and three suppression numbers, while his own season efficiency is modest at 0.399 FG% and 0.303 from three. With the posted points lines sitting around 20.5 to 21.5, the market is already pricing in some of that recent boost, so the best angles are the softer peripheral props and a cautious stance on points.
Toronto’s defense profile is not a soft landing spot on paper, with a 111.97 defensive rating and negative scoring suppression listed. Key defenders data is available, but no specific defender matchup data is needed here beyond the listed defensive context.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jalen Green▼ | Points | 20.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 30% | 20 | ✓ |
Jalen Green▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 3 | ✓ |
Jalen Green▼ | Assists | 3.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 7 | ✗ |
Jalen Green▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 2 | ✗ |
Jalen Green▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Jalen Green▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 52%MEDIUM | — | 20% | 1 | ✗ |
Jalen Green▼ | Turnovers | 2.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 2 | ✗ |
Jalen Green▼ | P+A | 24.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 27 | ✗ |
This is the cleanest edge in the data: he averages 3.6 rebounds for the season and 3.58 at home, both clearly below 4.5. The value section also identifies UNDER 4.5 rebounds as the best side with positive edge, making it the most reliable play.
| low |
| Devin Vassell | 2 | 5 | 110% | +37.5% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Immanuel Quickley | 2 | 8 | 6 | 29% | 29% |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Scottie Barnes | 2 | 3 | 6 | 75% | 75% |
| Jamal Shead | 2 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 75% |
| RJ Barrett | 2 | 3 | 9 | 80% | 80% |
His season average is 17.5 PPG and his home split is 15.2 PPG, both below this line. The last 5 at 21.0 PPG is hotter, but the recent jump came with 33.0 MPG and still doesn’t fully outweigh the weaker home baseline and 0.399 FG%.
He averages 3.6 RPG for the season and 3.58 at home, well below 4.5. The value data also flags UNDER 4.5 rebounds as the best side with positive edge.
Season assists are 2.6 APG and even the recent 3.3 APG sits below 3.5. His assists variance is moderate, but the base rate still points to the under.
He averages 2.3 made threes per game on the season and 2.9 over the last 5, with 3.0 FG3M in the last 5 and 2.25 at home. Value props also show OVER 2.5 threes as the best side with a positive edge.
His season steals average is 1.2, and the last 10 is 1.0, both below 1.5. The higher-variance defensive stat makes the under the more stable read.
He averages 1.26 stocks on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, which keeps him near the threshold. This is a moderate-confidence over only because the combo is not far off the line, but the variance is high.
His recent turnover rate is 2.4 in the last 10 and 2.4 in the last 20, with 2.0 over the last 5, so this sits close to the line and leans over. More minutes have also pushed the ballhandling load higher.
His season scoring plus assists profile is 20.1 PA using 17.5 points and 2.6 assists, below the 24.5 line. The recent form is better, but combo props are higher variance and should stay conservative.