AI Model:

Jalen Green▼

PHX · SF

PPG

17.5

RPG

3.6

APG

2.6

L5 PPG

21.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.5

17.5

21.0

RPG+1.2

3.6

4.8

APG+0.6

2.6

3.2

SPG-0.4

1.2

0.8

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

UNDER 20.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

20.5

CHI

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs CHI: 12 pts

NOP

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NOP: 25 pts

CHA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHA: 24 pts

MIL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIL: 25 pts

IND

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs IND: 36 pts

TOR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs TOR: 34 pts

BOS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BOS: 21 pts

MIN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIN: 9 pts

SAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAS: 17 pts

MIL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MIL: 24 pts

Over 20.5

Under 20.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 20.5FANDUEL

58%

REB

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

68%

AST

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

60%

3PM

OVER 2.5BETMGM

61%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

66%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

52%

OVER 2.5

63%

P+A

UNDER 24.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.2

21.3

RPG

3.6

4.0

APG

2.4

3.0

vs TOR (H2H)8 games

PPG

17.8

RPG

5.0

APG

2.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Immanuel Quickley	2	8	29%	-13.9%	low
Brandon Miller	2	7	20%	-22.5%	low
Ousmane Dieng	2	6	33%	-9.2%	low
Sam Hauser	2	6	0%

Jalen Green carries elevated usage, but efficiency and home split keep the ceiling in check

Green’s recent scoring has been strong at 21.0 PPG over the last 5 and 22.7 over the last 10, but his season mark is still 17.5 PPG and his home scoring is just 15.2 PPG. He’s also seeing far more run lately, with 33.0 MPG over the last 5 versus 26.0 MPG for the season, which supports his counting stats but not necessarily a huge scoring explosion. The matchup adds some resistance: Toronto’s defense profile shows a 111.97 rating with negative scoring suppression and three suppression numbers, while his own season efficiency is modest at 0.399 FG% and 0.303 from three. With the posted points lines sitting around 20.5 to 21.5, the market is already pricing in some of that recent boost, so the best angles are the softer peripheral props and a cautious stance on points.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.0(↑ from 17.5)

RPG

4.8(↑ from 3.6)

APG

3.2(↑ from 2.6)

3PM

3.0(↑ from 2.3)

Key Matchup

Toronto’s defense profile is not a soft landing spot on paper, with a 111.97 defensive rating and negative scoring suppression listed. Key defenders data is available, but no specific defender matchup data is needed here beyond the listed defensive context.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Green▼	Points	20.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	20	✓
Jalen Green▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✓
Jalen Green▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	7	✗
Jalen Green▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✗
Jalen Green▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	0	✓
Jalen Green▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	20%	1	✗
Jalen Green▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✗
Jalen Green▼	P+A	24.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	27	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS17.5OVER2%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x14/2070%+14.2% edgeLine moved -1.0; Value edge changed -0.043; Odds moved materially▼

P+R25OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x12/2060%▼

P+A24.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

R+A7.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

PRA26.5UNDER4%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x14/2070%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Line moved +1.0; Value edge shifted -0.385▼

REB4.5UNDER31%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%Odds moved materially▼

3PM2.5UNDER11%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%No material changes▼

AST3.5UNDER14%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/2045%No material changes▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Green

Rebounds UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data: he averages 3.6 rebounds for the season and 3.58 at home, both clearly below 4.5. The value section also identifies UNDER 4.5 rebounds as the best side with positive edge, making it the most reliable play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Immanuel Quickley	2	8	6	29%	29%
Ja'Kobe Walter	2	5	0	0%	0%
Scottie Barnes	2	3	6	75%	75%
Jamal Shead	2	3	3	50%	75%
RJ Barrett	2	3	9	80%	80%

pointsUNDER 20.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 17.5 PPG and his home split is 15.2 PPG, both below this line. The last 5 at 21.0 PPG is hotter, but the recent jump came with 33.0 MPG and still doesn’t fully outweigh the weaker home baseline and 0.399 FG%.

reboundsUNDER 4.568%MEDIUM

He averages 3.6 RPG for the season and 3.58 at home, well below 4.5. The value data also flags UNDER 4.5 rebounds as the best side with positive edge.

assistsUNDER 3.560%MEDIUM

Season assists are 2.6 APG and even the recent 3.3 APG sits below 3.5. His assists variance is moderate, but the base rate still points to the under.

threesOVER 2.561%MEDIUM

He averages 2.3 made threes per game on the season and 2.9 over the last 5, with 3.0 FG3M in the last 5 and 2.25 at home. Value props also show OVER 2.5 threes as the best side with a positive edge.

stealsUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 1.2, and the last 10 is 1.0, both below 1.5. The higher-variance defensive stat makes the under the more stable read.

stocksOVER 1.552%MEDIUM

He averages 1.26 stocks on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, which keeps him near the threshold. This is a moderate-confidence over only because the combo is not far off the line, but the variance is high.

turnoversOVER 2.563%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rate is 2.4 in the last 10 and 2.4 in the last 20, with 2.0 over the last 5, so this sits close to the line and leans over. More minutes have also pushed the ballhandling load higher.

paUNDER 24.557%MEDIUM

His season scoring plus assists profile is 20.1 PA using 17.5 points and 2.6 assists, below the 24.5 line. The recent form is better, but combo props are higher variance and should stay conservative.

timelineUNDER 20.5 PTS