AI Model:

Collin Gillespie▲

PHX · PG

PPG

13.3

RPG

4.2

APG

4.8

L5 PPG

11.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.9

13.3

11.4

RPG-1.0

4.2

3.2

APG-0.4

4.8

4.4

SPG-0.1

1.3

1.2

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

CHI

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs CHI: 5 pts

NOP

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NOP: 12 pts

CHA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHA: 24 pts

MIL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIL: 12 pts

IND

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs IND: 4 pts

TOR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs TOR: 0 pts

BOS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BOS: 3 pts

MIN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIN: 12 pts

SAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAS: 24 pts

MIL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MIL: 18 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5FANDUEL

72%

REB

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

66%

AST

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

61%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

57%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

64%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

83%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

UNDER 2

58%

R+A

UNDER 8.5FANDUEL

59%

P+A

UNDER 17.5FANDUEL

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.3

10.0

RPG

4.2

4.4

APG

4.4

5.9

vs TOR (H2H)3 games

PPG

1.0

RPG

1.7

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Russell Westbrook	4	14	56%	+8.0%	medium
Donte DiVincenzo	3	12	30%	-22.0%	medium
Cason Wallace	4	10	100%	+58.0%	medium
Julian Champagnie	4	10	30%

Gillespie’s 3-point volume keeps him playable, but the scoring number looks a touch high

Collin Gillespie has been steady in minutes, logging 30.5 MPG over his last 10 and 30.9 MPG over his last 20, but his scoring has settled below his season average at 11.4 PPG vs 13.3 PPG for the year. The matchup is not a clean boost or fade from a defender standpoint because there is no specific defender matchup data, and Toronto’s team profile shows a 111.97 defensive rating with a 100 pace. His best path remains perimeter volume, as he’s at 2.8 made threes per game over the last 5 and 3.06 for the season, while assists and rebounds sit close to season norms rather than surging.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.4(↓ from 13.3)

APG

4.4(↓ from 4.8)

RPG

3.2(↓ from 4.2)

3PM

2.8(↓ from 3.1)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data, so the main context comes from Toronto’s 111.97 defensive rating and 100 pace. The opponent profile does not create a strong pace-driven ceiling, and the lack of named defender data means no individual matchup bump should be assumed.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Collin Gillespie▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	70%	16	✗
Collin Gillespie▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	4	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	3	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	4	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	83%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	100%	3	✗
Collin Gillespie▼	R+A	8.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	7	✓
Collin Gillespie▼	P+A	17.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	19	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS9.5UNDER13%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.314▼

AST3.5UNDER9%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%Odds moved materially▼

PRA16.5UNDER14%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%Line moved -1.0▼

3PM2.5UNDER8%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)12/2060%No material changes▼

R+A9UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+R15.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

P+A16.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x11/2055%▼

REB3.5UNDER23%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM; Value edge changed -0.034; Odds moved materially▼

Featured Pick

Collin Gillespie

Points UNDER 12.5HIGH

This is the clearest value on the slate for Gillespie: his season points average is 13.3, but his last 5 is 11.4 and the listed value props all point to the UNDER at 12.5 and 13.5 with positive edge. With recent scoring below season norm and no usage-boosting absence data, the under is the safest best bet.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Immanuel Quickley	2	5	11	57%	79%
RJ Barrett	2	4	11	71%	79%
Jamal Shead	2	2	0	0%	0%
Gradey Dick	1	2	3	100%	150%
Scottie Barnes	2	1	3	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 12.572%HIGH

His season scoring mean is 13.3, but the recent mean is 11.4 and the value screen shows a 10.8% to 13.3% edge on the UNDER at 12.5 to 13.5 lines. With last-5 scoring below season and no injury-driven usage boost, the under is the cleaner side.

reboundsUNDER 4.566%MEDIUM

He’s averaging 4.2 rebounds for the season and 3.2 over the last 5, which sits below the 4.5 line. The downside is moderate variance, but the recent form still points to fewer than 5 boards.

assistsUNDER 4.561%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 4.8, but the last 5 is 4.4 and the value data leans UNDER at 4.5 across multiple books. The under is supported, though this is not as strong as the points side because the season mean is still near the line.

threesOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 3.06 made threes on the season and 2.8 over the last 5, so the volume still clears 2.5. The edge is modest and confidence should stay restrained because the recent mean is slightly below the season baseline.

stealsUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 1.3 and the last 5 is 1.2, both below the 1.5 line. That makes the under the safer call even with a decent defensive-playmaking baseline.

blocksUNDER 0.583%HIGH

He averages just 0.2 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. With such a low block rate, the under is the strongest rate-based play on the board.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.49 and recent stocks are 1.1, which leaves him right around the threshold but not comfortably over it. Because combo variance is higher and recent form is softer, the under is slightly preferable.

turnoversUNDER 258%MEDIUM

He has averaged 0.6 turnovers over the last 5 and 1.0 over the last 10, well below a typical 2.0 threshold. Based on the provided logs, turnovers look more likely to stay modest than spike.

raUNDER 8.559%MEDIUM

His rebounds plus assists profile is 9.0 on the season but 8.6 over the last 5, which lands right around the line. Given the UNDER bias and the recent dip in both rebounding and assists, the under is the lean.

paUNDER 17.562%MEDIUM

Points plus assists has recent support only around 15.8 using the last-5 marks, and his season baseline of 18.1 is only slightly above the line. Since the recent scoring is down, the under is the better conservative angle.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Gillespie’s 3-point volume keeps him playable, but the scoring number looks a touch high

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 12.5 PTS