AI Model:

Brandon Ingram▼

TOR · SG

PPG

21.8

RPG

5.6

APG

3.7

L5 PPG

25.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.0

21.8

25.8

RPG-0.8

5.6

4.8

APG-0.9

3.7

2.8

SPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

BPG-0.7

0.7

0.0

UNDER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

21.5

WAS

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs WAS: 24 pts

NYK

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NYK: 31 pts

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 14 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 11 pts

HOU

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs HOU: 9 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 22 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 36 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 34 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 18 pts

DEN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DEN: 19 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 21.5FANDUEL

58%

REB

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL

60%

AST

OVER 3.5BETMGM

64%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

OVER 0.5FANDUEL

52%

BLK

UNDER 0.5FANDUEL

56%

P+A

OVER 25.5FANDUEL

55%

P+R

OVER 26.5FANDUEL

54%

UNDER 0

72%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

22.7

21.6

RPG

5.0

4.8

APG

3.5

3.9

vs PHX (H2H)8 games

PPG

23.4

RPG

5.5

APG

5.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Noah Clowney	3	19	54%	-0.9%	medium
Gary Trent Jr.	4	17	45%	-17.1%	medium
Zaccharie Risacher	4	16	44%	-9.6%	medium
Tobias Harris	3	16	83%

Ingram’s scoring floor looks shaky, but the assist and three-ball value stands out

Brandon Ingram is averaging 21.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 3.7 APG on the season, but his recent scoring has been volatile with 25.8 PPG over the last 5 and a much steadier 21.8 PPG over the last 10. Against Phoenix, he has averaged 23.375 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 5.5 APG across 8 games, which supports his overall involvement. The matchup also points to some scoring resistance, with Phoenix carrying a 111.17 defensive rating and a -1.55 three suppression mark, so the best edges are tied more to volume and role than explosive scoring upside.

Stat Trends

PPG

25.8(↑ from 21.8)

RPG

4.8(↓ from 5.6)

APG

2.8(↓ from 3.7)

Key Matchup

Key defender data is limited and not enough to build a specific defender read, so there is no specific defender matchup data. Phoenix’s team defense numbers are the main signal here, with a 111.17 defensive rating and -1.55 three suppression suggesting a tougher scoring environment from deep.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Brandon Ingram▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	6	✓
Brandon Ingram▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	4	✓
Brandon Ingram▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	1	✗
Brandon Ingram▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	0	✗
Brandon Ingram▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Brandon Ingram▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	70%	3	✗
Brandon Ingram▼	P+A	25.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	7	✗
Brandon Ingram▼	P+R	26.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	10	✗
Brandon Ingram▼	Double-Double	0	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PTS20.5OVER4%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

REB5.5UNDER11%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

P+R25UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 8x7/2035%▼

AST3.5UNDER26%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x12/2060%▼

FTM4UNDER41%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

FTA4.5UNDER13%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

PRA29.5UNDER14%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 8x8/2040%+7.6% edge▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

P+A23.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 8x8/2040%▼

3PM1.5OVER2%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

3PA3UNDER12%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Brandon Ingram

Assists OVER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the board because his season average is 3.73 APG, his vs-opponent average is 5.5 APG in 8 games, and the value file shows a 0.087 edge with positive EV. Unlike the scoring props, this bet is supported by both role-based production and explicit market edge.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Royce O'Neale	1	5	3	25%	38%
Haywood Highsmith	1	4	2	100%	100%
Rasheer Fleming	2	3	0	0%	0%
Ryan Dunn	1	3	5	100%	125%
Jordan Goodwin	2	3	7	50%	75%

pointsUNDER 21.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 21.8, but his last-10 is also 21.8 and Phoenix has a 111.17 defensive rating with -1.55 three suppression. With the OVER bias caution and his recent scoring variance, the under is the steadier lean.

reboundsUNDER 5.560%MEDIUM

He is at 5.6 RPG for the season, but only 4.6 over the last 10 and 4.8 over the last 5. That recent dip makes 5.5 a slightly inflated number relative to his current form.

assistsOVER 3.564%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 3.73 and his vs-opponent mark is 5.5 APG across 8 games, with a 4.0 b2b mean in the data. The best value file also shows a 0.087 edge on Over 3.5 assists.

threesOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.81 made threes per game on the season and 1.8 over the last 10, with 2.0 at home. Value data shows a 0.074 edge on the DraftKings Over 1.5.

stealsOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals per game on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, so a 0.5 line is reachable. Confidence stays modest because the recent standard deviation is high at 1.17 for stocks-related production.

blocksUNDER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 blocks per game on the season, but only 0.3 over the last 10 and 0.0 over the last 5. That recent drop supports the under at a 0.5 line.

paOVER 25.555%MEDIUM

Points plus assists is supported by his 21.8 PPG and 3.7 APG season averages, and his matchup history vs Phoenix includes 23.375 PPG and 5.5 APG. This is a combo prop, so confidence is moderate only.

prOVER 26.554%MEDIUM

His season points and rebounds combine to 27.4, which sits slightly above the 26.5 line. The recent rebound dip keeps this from being a high-confidence play.

double_doubleUNDER 072%HIGH

He has no strong double-double profile from the provided season averages, with 21.8 PPG but only 5.6 RPG and 3.7 APG. The recent rebound and assist trends are both below season levels, which lowers DD upside.

timelineUNDER 21.5 PTS