AI Model:

Jrue Holiday—

POR · PG

PPG

16.1

RPG

4.5

APG

6.3

L5 PPG

13.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.5

16.1

13.6

RPG+0.3

4.5

4.8

APG+0.7

6.3

7.0

SPG-0.3

1.1

0.8

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

15.5

ATL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs ATL: 23 pts

MEM

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MEM: 35 pts

HOU

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs HOU: 20 pts

IND

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs IND: 21 pts

CHA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHA: 4 pts

UTA

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs UTA: 25 pts

PHI

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs PHI: 5 pts

BKN

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BKN: 11 pts

IND

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs IND: 15 pts

MIN

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs MIN: 12 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5FANDUEL

64%

REB

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

58%

AST

OVER 6.5FANDUEL

55%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

62%

STL

OVER 0.5FANDUEL

54%

P+A

OVER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.1

18.0

RPG

3.5

5.1

APG

5.0

6.8

vs DEN (H2H)10 games

PPG

13.1

RPG

3.1

APG

5.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Julius Randle	4	10	59%	+9.0%	medium
Kawhi Leonard	2	10	60%	+4.5%	low
Aaron Gordon	3	10	40%	-5.5%	medium
Jamal Murray	4	9	68%

Holiday’s usage is steady, but the scoring path looks capped

Jrue Holiday is producing 16.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 6.3 APG on the season, with recent work showing 13.6 PPG and 7.0 APG over his last 5. His scoring has cooled versus his last 10 and last 20 marks, while his assists remain the most stable category thanks to 29.2 season MPG and 30.1 MPG over the last 10. With Damian Lillard, Shaedon Sharpe, and Caleb Love out, Holiday should keep handling the ball, but his points line sits near his season mean and his head-to-head scoring vs this opponent is just 13.1 PPG across 10 games.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.6(↓ from 16.1)

APG

7.0(↑ from 6.3)

RPG

4.8(→ from 4.5)

3PM

2.9(↑ from 2.4)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders. The opponent allows 116.74 in defensive rating context, but Holiday’s own history vs this opponent is only 13.1 PPG across 10 games, which tempers the scoring outlook.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jrue Holiday▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	9	✓
Jrue Holiday▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✓
Jrue Holiday▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✗
Jrue Holiday▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✗
Jrue Holiday▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Jrue Holiday▼	P+A	21.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	12	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A23.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

PTS17UNDER23%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST5OVER4%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

R+A10.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R22OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

REB5UNDER42%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)5/2025%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

FTA1.5UNDER8%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

PRA26.5UNDER11%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

3PM3UNDER20%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x8/2040%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PA7.5UNDER12%gbtAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM1UNDER28%gbtAvoid (6/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Jrue Holiday

Threes OVER 2.5MEDIUM

This is the strongest value angle in the data: Holiday averages 2.41 threes for the season and 2.9 over his last 5, while multiple books price the over with a positive edge of 9.6% to 12.0%. The role is stable and the line is right in his make range, making this a better fit than chasing his points.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Aaron Gordon	3	10	6	40%	40%
Jamal Murray	4	9	27	57%	68%
Nikola Jokić	4	8	10	63%	63%
Bruce Brown	4	4	4	67%	67%
Cameron Johnson	4	3	1	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 15.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 16.1, but his last 5 is down to 13.6 and he has averaged only 13.1 PPG in 10 games vs this opponent. The recent dip plus opponent history makes the under the cleaner side.

reboundsUNDER 4.558%MEDIUM

He averages 4.5 rebounds on the season and 4.3 over the last 10, so a 4.5 line is basically fair. The away split is higher at 5.1, but the season baseline keeps this close enough to lean under in a low-margin spot.

assistsOVER 6.555%MEDIUM

Holiday’s role is boosted by the absences, and he has averaged 6.8 APG over the last 10 with 7.0 APG in the last 5. The line is only slightly above his season mean of 6.3, so the over is playable but not high-confidence.

threesOVER 2.562%MEDIUM

He averages 2.41 threes per game on the season and 2.9 over the last 5, which supports a modest over lean. The value data also shows positive edge at 2.5, with a 10.3% edge on FanDuel.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

Holiday averages 1.1 steals on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, so he clears this low line often enough. Variance is still real, but the category volume is strong relative to the number.

paOVER 21.552%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is 22.45 using 16.1 PPG and 6.3 APG, and the absence-driven usage keeps him active in both categories. This is a combo prop with added variance, so confidence stays moderate.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS