AI Model:

Aaron Gordon▲

DEN · PF

PPG

16.8

RPG

6.0

APG

2.4

L5 PPG

15.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.2

16.8

15.6

RPG-0.2

6.0

5.8

APG-0.2

2.4

2.2

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG+0.5

0.3

0.8

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

15.5

DAL

2026-01-14

2026-01-14 vs DAL: 22 pts

WAS

2026-01-17

2026-01-17 vs WAS: 8 pts

LAL

2026-01-20

2026-01-20 vs LAL: 18 pts

MIL

2026-01-23

2026-01-23 vs MIL: 13 pts

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 3 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 23 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 0 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 27 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 12 pts

TOR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs TOR: 16 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

REB

OVER 5.5FANDUEL

64%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

56%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

54%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

58%

OVER 1

55%

PRA

UNDER 23.5FANDUEL

55%

P+A

UNDER 17.5FANDUEL

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.1

17.5

RPG

6.2

6.4

APG

3.8

1.8

vs POR (H2H)18 games

PPG

12.9

RPG

4.9

APG

3.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Giannis Antetokounmpo	2	12	53%	-0.3%	low
Alex Sarr	2	11	42%	-8.6%	low
Zion Williamson	2	11	33%	-17.0%	low
Julius Randle	2	10	43%

Gordon’s rebounding and secondary scoring stand out, but points remain a tougher ask

Aaron Gordon is averaging 16.8 PPG, 6.0 RPG, and 2.4 APG this season across 27.3 MPG, with recent form holding close to that baseline. His last 5 games show 15.6 PPG and 5.8 RPG, while his home scoring drops to 13.1 PPG compared to 17.5 PPG away. The matchup context is mixed: Portland’s defense data is available, but Gordon’s historical production vs this opponent sits at 12.94 PPG and 4.94 RPG over 18 games, which is below his season averages. With FanDuel listing 5.5 rebounds at plus money and 15.5 points near his season mean, rebounds look like the cleaner angle than points.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.6(↓ from 16.8)

RPG

5.8(→ from 6.0)

APG

2.2(↓ from 2.4)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data to anchor a one-on-one read. Portland’s opponent defense shows a 117.19 defensive rating and 0.424 scoring suppression, while Gordon’s own history vs this team is 12.94 PPG and 4.94 RPG across 18 games.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Aaron Gordon▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	12	✓
Aaron Gordon▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	3	✗
Aaron Gordon▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	4	✓
Aaron Gordon▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✓
Aaron Gordon▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Aaron Gordon▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Aaron Gordon▼	Turnovers	1	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	20%	0	✗
Aaron Gordon▼	PRA	23.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	19	✓
Aaron Gordon▼	P+A	17.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	16	✓

ML Scout Analysis

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)5/2025%▼

P+R21OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+A18OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Aaron Gordon

Rebounds OVER 5.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest value on the card: his season rebounding average is 6.0, his last 5 are 5.8, and FanDuel shows a 6.2% edge with a projected over probability of 0.557. Compared with his points market, rebounds are more aligned with his baseline and offer the better combination of price and stability.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Deni Avdija	3	7	13	50%	56%
Toumani Camara	2	6	6	40%	50%
Jrue Holiday	3	5	6	29%	43%
Donovan Clingan	3	3	2	25%	25%
Matisse Thybulle	2	3	2	25%	25%

pointsUNDER 15.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 16.8 PPG, but his last 5 are down to 15.6 and his home mark is only 13.1 PPG. He also averages 12.94 PPG in 18 games vs this opponent, which supports a cautious UNDER lean.

reboundsOVER 5.564%MEDIUM

Gordon is at 6.0 RPG for the season and 5.8 RPG over the last 5, so 5.5 is a reachable number. The value data shows a 6.2% edge on the OVER at this line, with our projected over probability at 0.557.

assistsOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.4 APG, but the last 10 rise to 3.6 APG and the value card shows a 5.2% to 5.6% edge on the OVER depending on book. Variance is high with a 2.13 season standard deviation, so confidence stays moderate.

threesOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.82 made threes per game and 1.7 over the last 5, with 2.0 away and 1.36 at home. The line is below his season mean, but the edge is small, so this remains a modest OVER.

blocksOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.3 blocks per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, which gives this a live but volatile profile. Because the season rate is below the posted 0.5 line, this is only a low-confidence lean.

stocksUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.89 and last 5 are 1.2, both below a 1.5 threshold. Since the combined category carries more variance and his baseline is under the line, the UNDER is the safer side.

turnoversOVER 155%MEDIUM

He has 1.4 turnovers over the last 5 and 0.9 over the last 10, so a 1.0 line is in play. Still, his season turnover rate is not especially high, so confidence is limited.

praUNDER 23.555%MEDIUM

His season PRA from the provided averages is 25.2, but combo props are higher variance and his last 5 production has softened. Given the caution on combo markets, the UNDER gets a slight lean rather than a strong call.

paUNDER 17.554%MEDIUM

Using season averages, points plus assists sits at 19.2, but his recent scoring and home scoring are both lower than season baseline. This is close enough to the line that the safer angle is a slight UNDER lean.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS