Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson | 4 | 26 | 63% | -4.5% | medium |
| Andrew Nembhard | 4 | 19 | 46% | -10.5% | medium |
| VJ Edgecombe | 4 | 13 | 61% | +9.4% | medium |
| Norman Powell | 3 | 13 | 55% |
Payton Pritchard is playing a steady workload, with season averages of 16.7 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 5.3 assists in 32.6 MPG, but his recent scoring has cooled to 15.0 PPG over the last 5 and 13.6 over the last 10. The matchup is mixed: Minnesota has a 114.77 defensive rating and a -0.126 scoring suppression, while Anthony Edwards being out could shift some offensive responsibility toward Boston’s guards. However, his head-to-head history against this opponent is only 8.2 PPG and 2.8 APG in 21.9 MPG, which is a notable warning sign for overs.
No specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed key defenders, so the main read is team-level: Minnesota’s 114.77 defensive rating, -0.126 scoring suppression, and -0.193 three suppression create a tougher scoring environment.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Payton Pritchard▼ | Points | 15.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 10 | ✓ |
Payton Pritchard▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 1 | ✗ |
Payton Pritchard▼ | Assists | 4.5 | UNDER | 55%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 3 | ✓ |
Payton Pritchard▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 2 | ✓ |
Payton Pritchard▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 1 | ✓ |
Payton Pritchard▼ | Turnovers | 2 | UNDER | 59%MEDIUM | — | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
Payton Pritchard▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
Payton Pritchard▼ | P+R | 21.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 11 | ✓ |
The value props explicitly favor the under with a 4.3% edge at DraftKings and 0.569 projected under probability. That aligns with his recent_mean of 13.6 PPG, his head-to-head 8.2 PPG versus Minnesota, and a defense that suppresses scoring.
| medium |
| Immanuel Quickley | 3 | 12 | 21% | -29.5% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte DiVincenzo | 2 | 8 | 6 | 50% | 75% |
| Bones Hyland | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0% |
| Mike Conley | 1 | 2 | 3 | 100% | 150% |
| Jaden McDaniels | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Julius Randle | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 16.74, but the recent_mean is 13.6 and the model on the provided value prop shows 0.569 probability on the under with a 4.3% edge. Minnesota also suppresses scoring, and his vs-opponent scoring history is just 8.2 PPG.
He’s averaging 4.07 rebounds for the season and 3.7 over the last 10, with an away_mean of 4.56 that supports this line. The value data gives the over a 3.1% to 3.4% edge depending on book, though the margin is modest.
His season_mean is 5.32, but the provided value data slightly favors the under at 4.5 and his recent_mean is 5.1 with a soft downward assist trend. This is a thin edge spot, so confidence stays low.
He averages 2.57 threes on the season and 2.2 over the last 10, which puts him close to the line but not comfortably above it. The opponent’s three_suppression of -0.193 also leans against an over.
His season average is 0.8 steals and last_5 is 0.8, so a 0.5 line is reachable. This is still variance-heavy, so the confidence remains moderate.
Recent turnover rates are 1.8 over the last 5 and 1.7 over the last 10, both below a 2.0 projection. Even with a 2.0 last_20, the more recent stretch supports the under.
He averages 0.88 stocks for the season and 0.9 over the last 10, well below a 1.5 threshold. The home split at 1.4 is better, but still not enough to justify an over.
His season average for points plus rebounds is 20.81, while the last 10 combined is 17.3. Given the downward recent scoring and the opponent context, the under is the more conservative side.