Payton Pritchard▲

BOS · PG

PPG

16.7

RPG

4.1

APG

5.3

L5 PPG

15.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.7

16.7

15.0

RPG-0.5

4.1

3.6

APG-0.5

5.3

4.8

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

15.5

PHI

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs PHI: 0 pts

MIL

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs MIL: 25 pts

CHA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs CHA: 0 pts

DAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DAL: 18 pts

CLE

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CLE: 18 pts

OKC

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs OKC: 14 pts

WAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs WAS: 4 pts

PHX

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs PHX: 19 pts

GSW

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs GSW: 19 pts

MEM

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs MEM: 19 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

AST

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

UNDER 2

59%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

58%

P+R

UNDER 21.5STAKE

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.8

19.6

RPG

2.8

4.3

APG

4.9

6.0

vs MIN (H2H)10 games

PPG

8.2

RPG

3.2

APG

2.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Duncan Robinson	4	26	63%	-4.5%	medium
Andrew Nembhard	4	19	46%	-10.5%	medium
VJ Edgecombe	4	13	61%	+9.4%	medium
Norman Powell	3	13	55%

Pritchard’s usage rises, but the Wolves’ defense keeps the ceiling in check

Payton Pritchard is playing a steady workload, with season averages of 16.7 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 5.3 assists in 32.6 MPG, but his recent scoring has cooled to 15.0 PPG over the last 5 and 13.6 over the last 10. The matchup is mixed: Minnesota has a 114.77 defensive rating and a -0.126 scoring suppression, while Anthony Edwards being out could shift some offensive responsibility toward Boston’s guards. However, his head-to-head history against this opponent is only 8.2 PPG and 2.8 APG in 21.9 MPG, which is a notable warning sign for overs.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.0(↓ from 16.7)

APG

4.8(↓ from 5.3)

RPG

3.6(↓ from 4.1)

3PM

2.2(↓ from 2.6)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed key defenders, so the main read is team-level: Minnesota’s 114.77 defensive rating, -0.126 scoring suppression, and -0.193 three suppression create a tougher scoring environment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Payton Pritchard▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	10	✓
Payton Pritchard▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✗
Payton Pritchard▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	3	✓
Payton Pritchard▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	2	✓
Payton Pritchard▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓
Payton Pritchard▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	90%	1	✓
Payton Pritchard▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Payton Pritchard▼	P+R	21.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	11	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS15.5UNDER15%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x12/2060%▼

AST3.5OVER19%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)14/2070%+9.4% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.248▼

PRA22.5UNDER18%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

P+A20OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

REB2.5UNDER2%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)13/2065%▼

3PM2.5OVER10%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed -0.039▼

R+A7.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)11/2055%▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Payton Pritchard

Points UNDER 15.5HIGH

The value props explicitly favor the under with a 4.3% edge at DraftKings and 0.569 projected under probability. That aligns with his recent_mean of 13.6 PPG, his head-to-head 8.2 PPG versus Minnesota, and a defense that suppresses scoring.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Donte DiVincenzo	2	8	6	50%	75%
Bones Hyland	1	4	2	0%	0%
Mike Conley	1	2	3	100%	150%
Jaden McDaniels	2	1	0	0%	0%
Julius Randle	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 15.567%MEDIUM

His season mean is 16.74, but the recent_mean is 13.6 and the model on the provided value prop shows 0.569 probability on the under with a 4.3% edge. Minnesota also suppresses scoring, and his vs-opponent scoring history is just 8.2 PPG.

reboundsOVER 3.557%MEDIUM

He’s averaging 4.07 rebounds for the season and 3.7 over the last 10, with an away_mean of 4.56 that supports this line. The value data gives the over a 3.1% to 3.4% edge depending on book, though the margin is modest.

assistsUNDER 4.555%MEDIUM

His season_mean is 5.32, but the provided value data slightly favors the under at 4.5 and his recent_mean is 5.1 with a soft downward assist trend. This is a thin edge spot, so confidence stays low.

threesUNDER 2.556%MEDIUM

He averages 2.57 threes on the season and 2.2 over the last 10, which puts him close to the line but not comfortably above it. The opponent’s three_suppression of -0.193 also leans against an over.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.8 steals and last_5 is 0.8, so a 0.5 line is reachable. This is still variance-heavy, so the confidence remains moderate.

turnoversUNDER 259%MEDIUM

Recent turnover rates are 1.8 over the last 5 and 1.7 over the last 10, both below a 2.0 projection. Even with a 2.0 last_20, the more recent stretch supports the under.

stocksUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.88 stocks for the season and 0.9 over the last 10, well below a 1.5 threshold. The home split at 1.4 is better, but still not enough to justify an over.

prUNDER 21.561%MEDIUM

His season average for points plus rebounds is 20.81, while the last 10 combined is 17.3. Given the downward recent scoring and the opponent context, the under is the more conservative side.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS