Luka Garza▲

BOS · PF

PPG

7.6

RPG

3.9

APG

0.9

L5 PPG

12.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.8

7.6

12.4

RPG+0.5

3.9

4.4

APG-0.1

0.9

0.8

SPG+0.4

0.4

0.8

BPG-0.4

0.4

0.0

UNDER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

8.5

MIL

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs MIL: 7 pts

CHA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs CHA: 9 pts

DAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DAL: 10 pts

CLE

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CLE: 7 pts

SAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAS: 3 pts

OKC

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs OKC: 7 pts

WAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs WAS: 15 pts

PHX

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs PHX: 3 pts

GSW

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs GSW: 15 pts

MEM

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs MEM: 22 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 8.5STAKE

63%

REB

UNDER 5.5STAKE

81%

AST

OVER 0.5STAKE

66%

3PM

OVER 0.5STAKE

62%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

70%

P+R

UNDER 14.5STAKE

74%

P+A

UNDER 10.5STAKE

73%

R+A

UNDER 6.5STAKE

78%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.1

7.9

RPG

2.8

3.5

APG

0.6

0.7

vs MIN (H2H)1 games

PPG

3.0

RPG

0.0

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Day'Ron Sharpe	3	10	57%	-1.2%	medium
Alperen Sengun	2	10	40%	-18.3%	low
Jay Huff	4	8	17%	-41.6%	medium
Ivica Zubac	2	7	75%

Garza’s recent scoring bump faces a tougher efficiency test at home

Luka Garza is trending up, with his last 5 rising to 12.4 PPG and 18.4 MPG versus season marks of 7.6 PPG and 15.8 MPG, but the sample is volatile and well above his baseline. Tonight’s matchup comes at home, where he averages just 7.1 PPG, 2.8 RPG, and 13.0 MPG, and the opponent profile also leans to slower scoring with a 114.77 defensive rating and -0.126 scoring suppression. He did post 22 points in his most recent game, but that kind of outlier performance is hard to project forward, especially with his season standard deviation of 5.39 points and a prior head-to-head of only 3 points in 5 MPG. The absence of Anthony Edwards helps the game environment, but it does not erase the regression risk on his elevated recent scoring.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.4(↑ from 7.6)

RPG

4.4(→ from 3.9)

APG

0.8(→ from 0.9)

3PM

1.2(↑ from 0.8)

Key Matchup

Rudy Gobert is listed among the key defenders, but there is no specific defender matchup data beyond that. The opponent’s 114.77 defensive rating and -0.126 scoring suppression point to a modestly tougher scoring environment, while Anthony Edwards being out is the main absence to note on the other side.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Luka Garza▼	Points	8.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	5	✓
Luka Garza▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	81%HIGH	1/2	70%	6	✗
Luka Garza▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
Luka Garza▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	1	✓
Luka Garza▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Luka Garza▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	60%	11	✓
Luka Garza▼	P+A	10.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	2/2	60%	6	✓
Luka Garza▼	R+A	6.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	70%	7	✗
Luka Garza▼	STL+BLK	1	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓

ML Scout Analysis

FTA2UNDER68%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 7x2/1712%▼

P+R13UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)7/1741%▼

P+A10UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)7/1741%▼

PTS7UNDER1%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)8/1747%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PM1UNDER35%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)4/1724%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA12OVER4%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)8/1747%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

R+A5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x6/1735%▼

REB3UNDER15%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)8/1747%▼

3PA2UNDER18%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/1747%▼

FTM1UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/1747%▼

Featured Pick

Luka Garza

Rebounds UNDER 5.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge on the board: Garza averages 3.9 rebounds for the season, 2.8 at home, and the provided value data shows a 0.183 edge with 29.47 EV per 100 on the under. His recent 4.4 RPG is still below the line, so the under aligns with both baseline production and the value model.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Rudy Gobert	2	3	4	67%	67%
Kyle Anderson	1	2	2	50%	50%
Julius Randle	1	1	4	33%	50%
Jaden McDaniels	2	1	5	50%	63%
Naz Reid	1	0	3	100%	150%

pointsUNDER 8.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 7.6 PPG and home mean is 6.68 PPG, both below 8.5. The last 5 at 12.4 PPG is a clear spike, but the 5.39 point standard deviation and his 3-point head-to-head mark suggest regression risk.

reboundsUNDER 5.581%HIGH

Garza averages 3.9 RPG for the season and 2.8 RPG at home, both well under 5.5. The value data also flags UNDER with a 0.183 edge and 29.47 EV per 100.

assistsOVER 0.566%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 assists on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a low bar. The assist profile is still modest, but he clears this line more often than not.

threesOVER 0.562%MEDIUM

He averages 0.75 made threes per game on the season and 1.1 over the last 5, with 1.1 fg3m per game in the last 10. The recent volume supports at least one make, though the 0.75 season mean keeps confidence moderate.

blocksUNDER 0.570%HIGH

He averages 0.4 blocks per game on the season and 0.0 over the last 5. With that baseline, 0.5 is a difficult threshold to clear.

prUNDER 14.574%HIGH

His season points plus rebounds average is 11.5, and even using the recent bump he is only at 16.8 over the last 5. Given the rebound line looks weak for him, the combined prop still leans under.

paUNDER 10.573%HIGH

Season points plus assists sits at 8.5, and his last 5 is 13.2. This line is elevated relative to his normal role, so the safer side is under.

raUNDER 6.578%HIGH

His season rebounds plus assists average is 4.8, and even his last 5 is only 5.2. That leaves meaningful room below 6.5.

stocksUNDER 168%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 stocks on both the season and last 5, which is below a 1.0 threshold. The recent increase in steals has not been enough to make this a strong over.

timelineUNDER 8.5 PTS