AI Model:

Julius Randle—

MIN · PF

PPG

21.1

RPG

6.8

APG

5.1

L5 PPG

22.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.7

21.1

22.8

RPG-2.0

6.8

4.8

APG-0.9

5.1

4.2

SPG+0.7

1.1

1.8

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

21.5

MEM

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MEM: 23 pts

TOR

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs TOR: 17 pts

ORL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ORL: 14 pts

LAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs LAL: 14 pts

LAC

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs LAC: 11 pts

GSW

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs GSW: 10 pts

OKC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs OKC: 32 pts

PHX

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHX: 32 pts

UTA

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs UTA: 21 pts

POR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs POR: 19 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 21.5FANDUEL

58%

REB

OVER 6.5FANDUEL

63%

AST

OVER 4.5FANDUEL

54%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

60%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

64%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

72%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

57%

OVER 3

55%

P+R

UNDER 28.5FANDUEL

56%

P+A

UNDER 26.5FANDUEL

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.4

14.4

RPG

7.0

5.9

APG

4.2

4.5

vs BOS (H2H)17 games

PPG

23.4

RPG

8.6

APG

4.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Rui Hachimura	4	23	70%	+12.0%	medium
Nikola Jokić	4	22	73%	+18.7%	medium
DeMar DeRozan	4	16	50%	-2.5%	medium
Jerami Grant	4	15	50%

Randle’s home splits and teammate absences keep his ceiling intact

Julius Randle is averaging 21.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 5.1 APG this season, with his home line improving to 21.4 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and 4.2 APG across 12 games. The biggest boost comes from Anthony Edwards being out, which should keep Randle’s usage and playmaking elevated, but Boston’s defense context is still a drag with a 107.03 defensive rating and negative scoring suppression. His recent scoring has been volatile, as his last 5 (22.8 PPG) is above his season mark while his last 10 (19.3 PPG) sits below it, so points are less stable than rebounds. The strongest angle is rebounds, where his season mean and home production line up better than the more swingy scoring profile.

Stat Trends

PPG

22.8(↑ from 21.1)

RPG

4.8(↓ from 6.8)

APG

4.2(↓ from 5.1)

Stocks

2.0(↑ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

Boston’s defense context is a factor, with a 107.03 defensive rating and negative scoring suppression. There is also no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the edge comes more from team context and his own historical production than a named one-on-one assignment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Julius Randle▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	9	✓
Julius Randle▼	Rebounds	6.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	9	✓
Julius Randle▼	Assists	4.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	4	✗
Julius Randle▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Julius Randle▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✗
Julius Randle▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Julius Randle▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	80%	2	✓
Julius Randle▼	Turnovers	3	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✗
Julius Randle▼	P+R	28.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	18	✓
Julius Randle▼	P+A	26.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	13	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS23.5UNDER16%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%+18.1% edgeNo material changes▼

REB6.5OVER5%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x12/2060%Odds moved materially▼

P+A22.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

PRA36.5UNDER14%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)5/2025%+17.5% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Line moved +1.0; Value edge changed +0.031▼

R+A11OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

P+R25UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x8/2040%▼

AST4.5UNDER23%logisticAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%+7.9% edgeNo material changes▼

Featured Pick

Julius Randle

Rebounds OVER 6.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season rebound average is 6.8, his home split is 7.0, and he has averaged 8.647058823529411 rebounds in 17 games vs this opponent. The value screen also supports it, showing a 9.1% edge and 19.19 EV on the over at 6.5.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jayson Tatum	1	5	3	50%	75%
Jaylen Brown	2	3	9	57%	57%
Baylor Scheierman	2	3	0	0%	0%
Jordan Walsh	1	3	0	0%	0%
Sam Hauser	2	3	3	50%	75%

pointsUNDER 21.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 21.1 and last 10 is 19.3, while Boston’s defense context is a mild scoring suppressor. The last 5 at 22.8 is not enough to outweigh the broader sample, especially with recent volatility and a tougher matchup.

reboundsOVER 6.563%MEDIUM

He averages 6.8 rebounds for the season and 7.0 at home, with the matchup history showing 8.647058823529411 RPG in 17 games vs this opponent. Value data also flags the over at 6.5 with a 9.1% edge and 19.19 EV on Fanatics.

assistsOVER 4.554%MEDIUM

His season average is 5.1 APG and home split is 4.2 APG, but the absence of Anthony Edwards should support ball-handling and creation. Still, his recent mean is only 3.6, so this is a thinner play than rebounds.

threesUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.36 threes per game on the season and only 0.8 over the last 10, which points below this line. His three-point volume has also been modest recently at 0.8 fg3mpg.

stealsUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.1 steals, but the 1.5 line is above his normal production. Even with a stronger last 5 at 1.8, the larger sample still leans under.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

He averages only 0.2 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. This is well below the 0.5 line, making the under the clearest spot.

stocksUNDER 2.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.37 and recent mean is 1.4, which are both short of a 2.5 level. The last 5 spike to 2.0 is not enough to justify an over on this higher-variance combo.

turnoversOVER 355%MEDIUM

He is averaging 3.0 turnovers over the last 20 and 3.4 over the last 5, with 3.4 in the last 10 as well. If the ball is in his hands more with Anthony Edwards out, turnover volume remains a live over.

prUNDER 28.556%MEDIUM

His season averages project to 27.9 PR, just under this line, and his recent scoring is not consistently strong enough to push it higher. Combo props are volatile, so the small lean is to the under.

paUNDER 26.558%MEDIUM

Points plus assists comes out to 26.2 using his season means, which is below the line. His recent assist form is also down at 3.6 over the last 10, limiting upside.

timelineUNDER 21.5 PTS