Edwards’ absence boosts usage, but Boston and the line still lean under

Season average is only 3.1 RPG, and while the last 5 jumped to 7.2 RPG, that’s well above his longer sample and likely regression territory. The value model also shows a strong under edge at 4.5 rebounds.

His season mean is 3.51 APG and his last 10 is also 3.5, both below the line. The value props data shows a 22.6% edge on the under at 4.5 assists.

He averages 1.8 threes per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 5, so clearing 1.5 is supported by volume. The over is supported by his 0.445 three-point percentage, though the edge is small.

His season stocks average is 1.0, and even the last 10 sits at 0.9, below a meaningful high-variance threshold. With only 0.8 steals and 0.2 blocks per game, the over requires an outlier defensive night.

Combos are inherently volatile, and his season profile of 14.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 3.5 assists does not naturally point above 26.5. The recent surge raises the ceiling, but the larger sample and Boston matchup still argue for caution.