AI Model:

Killian Hayes▲

SAC · PG

PPG

5.3

RPG

2.5

APG

3.6

L5 PPG

8.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.5

5.3

8.8

RPG+1.1

2.5

3.6

APG+0.4

3.6

4.0

SPG-0.1

0.5

0.4

BPG+0.4

0.2

0.6

UNDER 5.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

5.5

LAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs LAL: 0 pts

PHX

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHX: 3 pts

NOP

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs NOP: 4 pts

CHI

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHI: 2 pts

IND

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs IND: 8 pts

CHA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CHA: 11 pts

LAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAC: 2 pts

UTA

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs UTA: 16 pts

SAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAS: 7 pts

PHI

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs PHI: 8 pts

Over 5.5

Under 5.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 5.5

68%

AST

OVER 3.5

61%

REB

OVER 2.5

59%

3PM

OVER 0.5

57%

STL

UNDER 0.5

64%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

72%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

66%

OVER 1.5

60%

PRA

UNDER 11

58%

P+A

UNDER 8.5

56%

UNDER 0.5

80%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.0

3.6

RPG

2.7

2.8

APG

4.0

4.8

vs BKN (H2H)6 games

PPG

9.2

RPG

3.5

APG

4.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
LaMelo Ball	1	6	75%	+21.1%	low
Jeremiah Fears	2	4	38%	-3.9%	low
Isaiah Collier	1	4	30%	+1.1%	low
Ben Saraf	2	4	33%

Hayes’ minutes are up, but the production is still volatile

Killian Hayes is trending up in playing time, with his last 5 games jumping to 23.2 MPG from a 17.8 season average, and that has lifted his recent scoring to 8.8 PPG and assists to 4.0 APG. The problem is efficiency: he’s shooting just 0.309 from the field on the season, and his recent production still comes with shaky volume and a high turnover rate of 2.6 per game over the last 5. This is a good spot for passing and all-around contributions because Domantas Sabonis, Drew Eubanks, and Russell Westbrook are out, but the safer angle is to lean on the lower season baselines rather than chase the hot streak. Against Brooklyn, his history is solid at 9.17 PPG and 4.17 APG across 6 games, but the overall profile still fits a cautious projection.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.8(↑ from 5.3)

APG

4.0(↑ from 3.6)

RPG

3.6(↑ from 2.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. Brooklyn’s defense context shows a 115.34 defensive rating and a 100 pace, with only a small scoring suppression number, so the matchup is not an obvious roadblock for his assist or secondary scoring chances.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Actual	Result
Killian Hayes▼	Points	5.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	50%	2	✓
Killian Hayes▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	40%	1	✗
Killian Hayes▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	60%	4	✓
Killian Hayes▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	50%	0	✗
Killian Hayes▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	70%	0	✓
Killian Hayes▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	80%	0	✓
Killian Hayes▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	70%	0	✓
Killian Hayes▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	50%	0	✗
Killian Hayes▼	PRA	11	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	50%	7	✓
Killian Hayes▼	P+A	8.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	50%	3	✓
Killian Hayes▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

3PA3UNDER45%gbtAvoid (7/20)7/1741%Scorecard changed -3.0▼

P+R8UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (7/20)UNDER 4x7/1741%Scorecard changed -3.0▼

P+A9.5UNDER0%gbt_paAvoid (7/20)8/1747%Scorecard changed -3.0▼

PTS5UNDER25%gbt_pointsAvoid (6/20)UNDER 4x6/1735%Scorecard changed -3.0▼

AST4UNDER4%gbt_assistsAvoid (6/20)4/1724%Scorecard changed -3.0▼

PRA10UNDER9%gbt_praAvoid (6/20)8/1747%Scorecard changed -3.0▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)7/1741%Scorecard changed -3.0▼

REB2OVER2%gbt_reboundsAvoid (5/20)8/1747%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

Featured Pick

Killian Hayes

Assists OVER 3.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest angle because his season average is 3.62 APG, his last 5 is 4.0 APG, and he has 4.17 APG in 6 games against this opponent. The role should remain elevated with Domantas Sabonis, Drew Eubanks, and Russell Westbrook out, which supports his ball-handling workload more than his scoring efficiency.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ben Saraf	2	4	2	33%	33%
Tyson Etienne	1	3	6	100%	150%
Nolan Traore	1	1	0	0%	0%
Drake Powell	1	1	4	100%	100%
Ochai Agbaji	1	0	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 5.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is only 5.31 PPG, and the recent 8.8 PPG is well above that baseline. With a 0.309 FG% and high game-to-game volatility, the under is the more conservative play.

assistsOVER 3.561%MEDIUM

He averages 3.62 APG on the season and 4.0 APG over the last 5, with 4.17 APG in 6 games vs this opponent. The expanded role from teammate absences supports a modest over, though the variance keeps confidence moderate.

reboundsOVER 2.559%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.54 RPG and he’s at 2.8 RPG over the last 10, with 3.6 RPG in the last 5. The line is close enough that the slightly elevated recent minute load gives the over a small edge.

threesOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.77 made threes per game on the season and 0.8 recently, with 1.4 made threes per game at home. Volume is still modest, but the baseline supports a small lean over.

stealsUNDER 0.564%MEDIUM

He’s at just 0.5 SPG on the season and 0.4 over the last 5. With limited steal volume and only average defensive counting stats, the under is the cleaner side.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

His season mark is only 0.2 BPG, and even the recent 0.6 BPG last 5 is a small sample spike. Given the low season baseline, the under is preferred.

stocksUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

He averages 0.77 stocks on the season and 0.8 recently, with a 1.0 home split. The combined defensive production is not high enough to trust the over on a 1.5 line.

turnoversOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

He’s averaging 1.2 turnovers over the last 20 and 1.4 over the last 10, but the last 5 has climbed to 2.6. With more ball-handling from teammate absences, turnovers can stay elevated.

praUNDER 1158%MEDIUM

His season production profile is 5.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, which sums to 11.4 PRA, but recent scoring volatility makes this a borderline number. Because combo props are higher variance, the under is the safer lean.

paUNDER 8.556%MEDIUM

He combines for 8.9 P+ A on season averages, and while recent form is slightly higher, it has not been stable. The line is tight enough that the season baseline points to a slight under.

double_doubleUNDER 0.580%HIGH

He is not close to double-double territory based on 5.3 PPG, 2.5 RPG, and 3.6 APG. Even with more minutes lately, the profile does not support consistent two-category double-digit upside.

timelineUNDER 5.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Hayes’ minutes are up, but the production is still volatile

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 5.5 PTS