AI Model:

Josh Minott—

BKN · C

PPG

6.6

RPG

3.2

APG

1.0

L5 PPG

15.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+9.0

6.6

15.6

RPG-0.4

3.2

2.8

APG0.0

1.0

SPG+0.6

0.8

1.4

BPG+0.8

0.4

1.2

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

SAS

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs SAS: 0 pts

BOS

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs BOS: 9 pts

CLE

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs CLE: 5 pts

MIA

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIA: 0 pts

MIA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIA: 0 pts

DET

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DET: 9 pts

ATL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ATL: 24 pts

PHI

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs PHI: 14 pts

OKC

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs OKC: 9 pts

NYK

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs NYK: 22 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

82%

AST

UNDER 1

63%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

STL

OVER 0.8

57%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

60%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

58%

UNDER 2

64%

P+R

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.2

6.6

RPG

1.3

2.0

APG

0.6

0.3

vs SAC (H2H)1 games

PPG

3.0

RPG

0.0

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Evan Mobley	3	9	0%	-50.0%	medium
Tyrese Maxey	3	7	75%	+0.0%	medium
Jalen Brunson	2	7	14%	-35.7%	low
Franz Wagner	3	5	67%

Minott’s rebounding and scoring are capped despite a recent spike

Josh Minott’s season baseline is modest at 6.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 1.0 APG in 16 MPG, and his last-10 line of 9.2 PPG, 2.1 RPG, and 0.8 APG still sits below the current scoring surge in his last-5. His recent scoring run is real, but the 15.6 PPG last-5 comes on just 22.0 MPG and is well above the season average, so regression risk is high. The matchup is also not ideal for volume: Sacramento’s defense context shows a 120.99 defensive rating and a 1.291 scoring suppression factor, which supports caution on overs. Absences around him do help the role, but the strongest value data still points to the under on his main counting props.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.6(↑ from 6.6)

RPG

2.8(↓ from 3.2)

APG

1.0(→ from 1.0)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. Sacramento’s opponent context shows a 120.99 defensive rating and 1.291 scoring suppression, which leans against aggressive scoring overs.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Josh Minott▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	70%
Josh Minott▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	1/2	90%
Josh Minott▼	Assists	1	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	80%
Josh Minott▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Josh Minott▼	Steals	0.8	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Josh Minott▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%
Josh Minott▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%
Josh Minott▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	80%
Josh Minott▼	P+R	16.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	80%

ML Scout Analysis

PTS12.5UNDER15%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)7/1450%▼

REB4.5UNDER55%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x3/1421%+27.1% edge▼

FTA2.5UNDER11%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)7/1450%▼

PRA14.5OVER25%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)7/1450%▼

FTM2UNDER30%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x5/1436%▼

P+A13OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)7/1450%▼

STL1UNDER31%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (11/20)5/1436%▼

3PA5UNDER6%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x5/1436%▼

R+A3.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x6/1443%▼

P+R15OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)7/1450%▼

3PM1.5OVER26%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)8/1457%▼

Featured Pick

Josh Minott

Rebounds UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge on the board: the value data shows a 20.6% edge for the UNDER with an implied-probability gap in our favor. Minott’s season average is 3.2 RPG, his last-10 is 2.1 RPG, and his recent games do not show sustained 5+ rebound production.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Devin Carter	1	3	100%	150%
Nique Clifford	1	2	0%	0%
Isaiah Stevens	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 11.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is only 6.6 PPG and the last-10 is 9.2 PPG, well below this number. Even with the last-5 spike to 15.6, that stretch is likely to regress toward the season baseline.

reboundsUNDER 4.582%HIGH

He averages 3.2 RPG on the season and 2.1 RPG over the last-10, and the value data shows a strong UNDER lean at 4.5 with a 20.6% edge. His recent rebounding has not supported a 5+ rebound projection.

assistsUNDER 163%MEDIUM

Season assists sit at 1.0 APG and the last-10 is 0.8 APG, so his passing volume is limited. With a low-usage profile, the under is slightly preferable.

threesUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.21 threes per game on the season, but the 1.5 line is still above his baseline. The recent rise in volume is notable, but the current line is still tough to clear consistently.

stealsOVER 0.857%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 0.8 SPG on the season and 1.1 SPG over the last-10. That keeps the over playable, though the variance is high.

blocksUNDER 0.560%MEDIUM

He averages 0.4 BPG on the season and 0.7 BPG over the last-10, but the season number is still below 0.5. This is a volatile category, so the under is the safer lean.

stocksOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.26 and the last-10 is 1.8, supported by the recent defensive activity spike. This remains a variance-heavy prop, so confidence stays modest.

turnoversUNDER 264%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 turnovers per game over the season and 1.4 in the last-10, both below 2.0. Even with more minutes, this profile does not project as a high-turnover player.

prUNDER 16.571%HIGH

His season points-plus-rebounds profile is 9.8, and even the last-5 scoring surge doesn’t fully offset the rebound drag. The combo line is still asking for a stronger all-around game than his baseline.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS