AI Model:

DeMar DeRozan▼

SAC · SF

PPG

18.5

RPG

3.0

APG

4.0

L5 PPG

24.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.9

18.5

24.4

RPG-0.6

3.0

2.4

APG+2.0

4.0

6.0

SPG+0.1

1.1

1.2

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

18.5

DAL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs DAL: 7 pts

LAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs LAL: 9 pts

PHX

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHX: 17 pts

NOP

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs NOP: 15 pts

IND

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs IND: 12 pts

CHA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CHA: 39 pts

LAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAC: 27 pts

UTA

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs UTA: 41 pts

SAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAS: 2 pts

PHI

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs PHI: 13 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

AST

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

3PM

OVER 0.5BETONLINEAG

62%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

57%

P+A

UNDER 23.5FANDUEL

55%

P+R

UNDER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.3

17.4

RPG

2.9

1.8

APG

3.8

4.8

vs BKN (H2H)14 games

PPG

22.1

RPG

4.4

APG

3.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	23	32%	-21.1%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	4	20	59%	+4.8%	medium
Jaylen Wells	4	15	96%	+27.2%	medium
Royce O'Neale	4	15	33%

Points under still looks live despite a recent scoring spike

DeMar DeRozan is coming off a strong last-5 stretch at 24.4 PPG and 6.0 APG, but his longer sample is softer with 18.5 PPG on the season and 17.4 PPG over the last 20. His recent trend is down overall, and his minutes have also dipped to 28.8 in the last 10 from 31.6 for the season. The matchup is neutral-to-friendly on paper, with Brooklyn allowing a 115.34 defensive rating and DeRozan’s historical production vs this opponent sitting at 22.07 PPG, but the current market is still asking for a number above his season baseline. With teammate absences boosting the environment, his scoring ceiling remains intact, but the best statistical edge still leans to the under on points at the listed market level.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.4(↑ from 18.5)

APG

6.0(↑ from 4.0)

RPG

2.4(↓ from 3.0)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is provided. Brooklyn’s defense has a 115.34 rating, which is not an especially difficult environment, but the available data does not justify a defender-based boost or downgrade beyond the team context.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
DeMar DeRozan▼	Points	18.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	10	✓
DeMar DeRozan▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	8	✗
DeMar DeRozan▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	0	✗
DeMar DeRozan▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	—	20%	0	✗
DeMar DeRozan▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
DeMar DeRozan▼	P+A	23.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	18	✓
DeMar DeRozan▼	P+R	21.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	10	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA21OVER8%gbt_praAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

PTS15.5UNDER13%gbt_pointsAvoid (6/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

REB2OVER18%gbt_reboundsAvoid (6/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+R20UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (6/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

P+A23UNDER0%gbt_paAvoid (6/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

AST5OVER1%gbt_assistsAvoid (5/20)UNDER 4x7/2035%▼

FTM4.5UNDER19%gbtAvoid (5/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (5/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

FTA5UNDER12%gbtAvoid (4/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

DeMar DeRozan

Points UNDER 18.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the board: the season mean is exactly 18.5, the last-10 is 18.2, and the last-20 is 17.4, all pointing toward a scoring range that does not require an over. The value props data also shows a 9.0% edge on the under at DraftKings, which is strong enough to stand out despite the recent last-5 spike.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Drake Powell	1	3	2	50%	50%
E.J. Liddell	1	1	0	0%	0%
Danny Wolf	1	0	0	0%	0%
Ben Saraf	1	0	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 18.568%MEDIUM

Season mean is 18.5 with a last-10 of 18.2 and last-20 of 17.4, which fits the under better than the hot last-5. The value data shows a 9.0% edge on the under at DraftKings.

assistsUNDER 4.560%MEDIUM

He averages 4.0 assists on the season and 4.7 over the last 10, but the line sits above both his season and home average of 3.8. Recent assist volatility is high, so the under is safer.

reboundsOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

DeRozan averages 3.0 rebounds per game on the season and 2.99 in the prop metrics, clearing 2.5 most nights. The floor is supported by his home average of 2.9 and away average of 3.03.

threesOVER 0.562%MEDIUM

He averages 0.61 threes per game on the season and 0.78 at home, which gives the over a workable path. The value sheet shows a 14.9% edge on the over.

stocksUNDER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season combined steals plus blocks profile is 1.4 stocks, below the 1.5 threshold, and his last-10 stocks average is 1.2. This is a thin margin prop with limited upside for the over.

paUNDER 23.555%MEDIUM

Points plus assists average roughly 22.5 on season baselines, with 18.5 points and 4.0 assists. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is the more conservative side.

prUNDER 21.558%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is about 21.5 using 18.5 PPG and 3.0 RPG, and his recent rebounds have not surged. The market number is right on the boundary, so lean under.

timelineUNDER 18.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Points under still looks live despite a recent scoring spike

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 18.5 PTS