Raptors vs Nuggets — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

TOR

Raptors

39-29 | L10: 5-5

DEN

Nuggets

42-28 | L10: 5-5

2026-03-20

ML Game Intelligence

HIGH

TOR88%

12%DEN

TOR98-92DEN

Key Factors

*Nuggets without Peyton Watson (14.5 PPG) - out (Hamstring)
*Raptors without Collin Murray-Boyles (7.8 PPG) - doubtful (Thumb)
*Nuggets has positional advantages with deeper rotation (224.0 vs 198.0 depth)
*Nuggets owns the season series 8-3 against Raptors
*Raptors has key positional matchup advantages

Key Matchup

Nuggets has matchup advantages

DEN Advantages

+ Positional advantages
+ Better roster depth

Key Defensive Matchups

TOR Players

Brandon Ingram

Spencer Jones2g · 8m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Cameron Johnson1g · 4m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Christian Braun1g · 4m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Jakob Poeltl

Aaron Gordon1g · 6m+0.0%90% eFGlow

Nikola Jokić1g · 4m+0.0%63% eFGlow

Denver and Toronto both enter at 42-28 and 39-29 respectively, with each team 5-5 over the last 10 and both on 2 days rest. The Nuggets have dropped their last game while the Raptors are on a 3-game streak, and the biggest motivation angle is a tight midseason matchup with both teams in solid form rather than a rest-edge spot.

Team Comparison

TORDEN

Key Players

Jokić is down to 21.6 PPG over his last 5 compared to 28.2 PPG for the season, but the assist volume remains elite at 12.4 APG over that span. His prop profile is mixed because the scoring dip is meaningful, while his playmaking still supports passing overs; no historical defender matchup data available.

ProjectedPTS: 17.1-23.7-30.3REB: 10.1-13.1-16.1AST: 8.9-11.3-13.7

Johnson is well above his season scoring level with 17.6 PPG over his last 5 versus 11.8 PPG on the year, so the current run is clearly elevated. The rebound market is the cleaner angle because his value-prop data shows a strong edge there, while scoring is more volatile after the recent spike.

ProjectedPTS: 6.5-13.1-19.7REB: 0.8-3.8-6.8AST: 0-2.3-4.7

Murray is sitting at 21.0 PPG over his last 5 versus 25.1 PPG for the season, so the scoring line has moved above his recent form. His away production is much stronger than his home production, but the recent dip and higher turnover run make his overs less appealing than the season line suggests.

ProjectedPTS: 15.2-21.8-28.4REB: 1.6-4.6-7.6AST: 4.6-7-9.4

Braun has surged to 18.0 PPG over his last 5 versus 11.6 PPG on the season, and he’s also added 5.2 RPG and 3.2 APG in that stretch. That said, his scoring is trending well above the season mean, so regression risk is real even with the recent momentum; no historical defender matchup data available.

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Edge	Actual	Result
Cameron Johnson▼ DEN	Rebounds	3.5fanduel	OVER	68%HIGH	60%	+11.7%	5	✓
Christian Braun▼ DEN	Points	11.5fanduel	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	40%	+8.9%	11	✓
Jakob Poeltl▼ TOR	Rebounds	8.5fanduel	OVER	60%MEDIUM	30%	+14.5%	11	✓
Brandon Ingram▼ TOR	Points	21.5draftkings	UNDER	65%HIGH	50%	+14.5%	19	✓
Nikola Jokić▼ DEN	Assists	10.5Proj	OVER	58%MEDIUM	60%	+6.0%	9	✗

Model Comparison

4 models · 15 props compared

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Props Shown

15 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

Cameron Johnson

Rebounds OVER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the board: 3.75 rebounds per game on the season, 3.9 adjusted mean in the value data, and a 11.7% edge at FanDuel. His last 5 rebounding average is 3.8 with 29.8 MPG, so the role support is still there.

Brandon Ingram

Points UNDER 21.5HIGH

The under carries a 14.5% edge on a line that sits right above his season mean of 21.86 PPG. Even with his recent 23.8 PPG run, the season baseline is strong enough to make the under the better value play.

Jakob Poeltl

Rebounds OVER 8.5MEDIUM

Poeltl is averaging 9.4 rebounds over his last 5 against a 7.7 season mean, and the 8.5 line is still below that recent form. The 14.5% edge is strong, though his 3.21 rebound standard deviation keeps this below true high confidence.

Parlay of the Game

Cameron Johnson — Rebounds OVER 3.5Leg 1

Brandon Ingram — Points UNDER 21.5Leg 2

Jakob Poeltl — Rebounds OVER 8.5Leg 3

These legs combine two rebound overs with an Ingram points under, which creates a low-correlation build across separate player roles. Johnson and Poeltl both have recent rebound support above their lines, while Ingram’s under is driven by season-level value rather than needing a game script to cooperate.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Nikola Jokić injury_status is Unknown in the provided data. All other listed key players here are marked Available, and no additional injury impacts were provided.