Celtics vs Grizzlies — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

BOS

Celtics

46-23 | L10: 7-3

MEM

Grizzlies

24-44 | L10: 2-8

2026-03-20

ML Game Intelligence

HIGH

BOS95%

5%MEM

BOS104-80MEM

Key Factors

*Grizzlies without Ja Morant (19.5 PPG) - out (Elbow)
*Grizzlies without Zach Edey (13.6 PPG) - out (Ankle)
*Grizzlies without Santi Aldama (14.0 PPG) - out (Knee)
*Grizzlies without GG Jackson (11.6 PPG) - doubtful (Knee)
*Grizzlies without Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (8.4 PPG) - out (Finger)

Key Matchup

Celtics has matchup advantages

MEM Advantages

+ Positional advantages

BOS Advantages

Key Defensive Matchups

BOS Players

Jaylen Brown

Tyler Burton1g · 6m+0.0%100% eFGlow

Cam Spencer2g · 3m+0.0%50% eFGlow

Javon Small1g · 3m+0.0%50% eFGlow

Jayson Tatum

Taylor Hendricks1g · 5m+0.0%67% eFGlow

DeJon Jarreau1g · 1m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Boston enters at 46-23 with a 7-3 L10 and a 3-game winning streak, while Memphis is 24-44 and has dropped 8 of its last 10. The Grizzlies are on a back-to-back with 4 games in the last 7 days, so workload management and late-game fatigue are key factors, especially against a Celtics team that has had 2 days of rest.

Team Comparison

BOSMEM

Key Players

Brown is still producing at an elite level with 28.5 PPG on the season and 26.2 PPG over his last 5. His last-10 playmaking has also stayed strong at 6.7 APG, and Memphis has been vulnerable enough defensively to keep him in the scoring conversation despite the road setting. No historical defender matchup data available.

ProjectedPTS: 18-24.6-31.2REB: 3.2-6.2-9.2AST: 2.9-5.3-7.7

White’s scoring is steady, but his recent points have slipped to 17.4 PPG over the last 5 versus 18.7 over the last 10. With 34.2 MPG on both the season and last 5, his volume remains strong, but the recent trend points more toward balance than a scoring spike. No historical defender matchup data available.

ProjectedPTS: 8.9-15.5-22.1REB: 1.9-4.9-7.9AST: 2.8-5.2-7.6

Pritchard’s season line is 16.7 PPG, but his last 5 are down to 14.8 PPG and his last 10 are 13.9 PPG. That gap makes his points market more sensitive to volume swings, even though he’s still logging 34.4 MPG over the last 5. No historical defender matchup data available.

ProjectedPTS: 7.6-14.2-20.8REB: 0.6-3.6-6.6AST: 3.1-5.5-7.9

Scheierman’s recent rebounding has spiked to 7.0 RPG over the last 5 and 6.1 over the last 10, far above his 3.5 season average. The scoring side is less stable at 6.2 PPG over the last 5 versus 4.9 on the season, so the rebounding profile stands out more than points. No historical defender matchup data available.

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Edge	Actual	Result
Ty Jerome▼ MEM	Points	18.5fanduel	OVER	62%HIGH	70%	+10.1%	16	✗
Ty Jerome▼ MEM	3PM	1.5betonlineag	OVER	55%HIGH	100%	+10.7%	2	✓
Derrick White▼ BOS	Points	21.5fanduel	UNDER	98%HIGH	80%	+48.5%	14	✓
Jaylen Brown▼ BOS	Points	25.5draftkings	UNDER	77%HIGH	50%	+24.1%	30	✗
Payton Pritchard▼ BOS	Points	16.5draftkings	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	40%	+24.1%	19	✗

Model Comparison

4 models · 16 props compared

Sort:

Show:

Props Shown

16 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

Derrick White

Points UNDER 21.5HIGH

White’s last 5 are 17.4 PPG and the value model shows a massive 0.485 edge with 97.96 EV per $100. That’s a clear gap between the line and his current scoring level.

Ty Jerome

Points OVER 18.5HIGH

Jerome is at 20.2 PPG on the season and 21.0 PPG over his last 5, while the line sits at 18.5. The model gives a 0.101 edge and 19.51 EV per $100.

Jaylen Brown

Points UNDER 25.5HIGH

Brown’s recent scoring is 26.2 PPG, but the market is still asking for a high number and the under profile shows 0.241 edge with 45.12 EV per $100. It’s a strong value spot despite his elite season-long production.

Parlay of the Game

Derrick White — Points UNDER 21.5Leg 1

Ty Jerome — Points OVER 18.5Leg 2

Jaylen Brown — Points UNDER 25.5Leg 3

This 3-leg build leans into the most decisive pricing gaps from the game: White’s under, Jerome’s over, and Brown’s under. The legs are not strongly correlated, but they combine the clearest line-vs-form mismatches from both teams.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Taylor Hendricks is listed as Doubtful with Injury/Illness-LeftKnee. No other listed key player in the provided data has an injury status other than Available.