Atlanta Hawks vs Dallas Mavericks — Predictions & Player Props | NightlyHoops
AI Model:
ATL
Atlanta Hawks
37-31 | L10: 10-0
@
DAL
Dallas Mavericks
23-46 | L10: 2-8
2026-03-18
Key Defensive Matchups
ATL Players
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Klay Thompson2g · 8m+0.0%42% eFGlow
Naji Marshall2g · 7m+0.0%0% eFGlow
Ryan Nembhard2g · 3m+0.0%83% eFGlow
Jalen Johnson
P.J. Washington2g · 12m+0.0%41% eFGlow
Naji Marshall2g · 5m+0.0%63% eFGlow
Atlanta enters at 37-31 and riding a 10-game winning streak, while Dallas is 23-46 and has gone 2-8 over its last 10. Both teams are on 2 days rest, so the motivation angle is straightforward: Atlanta is playing to keep the streak alive, and Dallas is trying to stabilize after a difficult stretch.
McCollum is steady rather than explosive right now at 16.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 3.6 APG over the last 5, slightly below his 18.6 PPG season mark. His points line is 17.5, so the market is tighter than his recent production, but his volume is still solid in a high-minute role.
C
Onyeka Okongwu▼
ATL · C
PPG
15.8
RPG
7.8
APG
3.2
L5 PPG
12.0
His recent scoring has cooled to 12.0 PPG over the last 5, down from 15.8 PPG on the season, but the rim protection and rebounding remain intact at 1.8 BPG and 7.0 RPG in that span. The prop market is still fairly aggressive on his points and rebounds, so his recent dip matters here.
C
Onyeka Okongwu▼
ATL · C
PPG
15.8
RPG
7.8
APG
3.2
L5 PPG
12.0
His recent scoring has cooled to 12.0 PPG over the last 5, down from 15.8 PPG on the season, but the rim protection and rebounding remain intact at 1.8 BPG and 7.0 RPG in that span. The prop market is still fairly aggressive on his points and rebounds, so his recent dip matters here.
He is averaging 26.4 PPG over his last 5 and 22.3 PPG over his last 10, both clearly above 18.5. The current scoring run and heavy 36.0 MPG recent workload support the over.
Daniel Gafford
Rebounds OVER 7.5MEDIUM
His last 5 rebound average is 10.8 RPG and his last 10 is 8.1 RPG, both above the line. The only caution is injury status, which is listed as Questionable.
P.J. Washington
Rebounds OVER 6.5MEDIUM
Washington’s last 5 rebound average is 8.2 RPG and his season average is 7.0 RPG, so the line is below his typical production. He has also been at 8.2 RPG in the latest five-game sample.
Parlay of the Game
Nickeil Alexander-Walker — Points OVER 18.5Leg 1
P.J. Washington — Rebounds OVER 6.5Leg 2
Jalen Johnson — Assists OVER 8.5Leg 3
These legs are built around recent volume and role stability: Alexander-Walker’s scoring surge, Washington’s rebound baseline, and Johnson’s playmaking load. They can all hit without needing the same game script, which keeps the parlay correlation manageable.
Injury & Lineup Notes
Daniel Gafford is listed as Questionable with Injury/Illness-LeftFoot. If he is ruled out, his rebound and points props should be avoided or re-evaluated.
